A universe in which every kind of past observation is uncorrelated with future observations of the same kind would be a world in which animals could not evolve. Hence, not the kind of universe I would care to (or be able to) contemplate. However, I am quite capable of believing that there are some kinds of observations which do not correlate with future instances of themselves. Random noise exists.
Assuming you have no objection to that, I suppose you can go on preaching that the key mystery of the universe and the basis of all epistemology is induction. I have no objection. But I do think you ought to read Jaynes. Who knows? You might find something there to change your mind or perhaps a clue to dissolving the mystery.
I don’t think induction is of particular importance. We can’t function without assuming its validity. Thus, entertaining the idea that it is invalid is not constructive. I’d be very curious to see someone solve the problem of induction (which I briefly thought this was an attempt at), but it’s hardly an urgent matter.
Picking up on animals not evolving makes about as much sense as picking up on the fact that, if it weren’t for gravity, it would be tough to play badminton. This reinforces my suspicion that our concept of what we’re arguing about is so vastly different that a productive resolution is impossible.
I suppose the origin of this whole digression could be summarized by saying I thought the post was about (the problem of) induction, and was a useless point about a moderately interesting topic. Instead, it’s about (the practice of) induction, making it a decent but not terribly useful point about a rather uninteresting (or at least simple) topic. It is perhaps even less salient than the observation that, if we assume infinite sets of possibilities, then at some point Occam’s razor must work by sheer force of the nature of finite sum infinite sets having to have some arbitrary point after which they decrease.
It is perhaps even less salient than the observation that, if we assume infinite sets of possibilities, then at some point Occam’s razor must work by sheer force of the nature of finite sum infinite sets having to have some arbitrary point after which they decrease.
A universe in which every kind of past observation is uncorrelated with future observations of the same kind would be a world in which animals could not evolve. Hence, not the kind of universe I would care to (or be able to) contemplate. However, I am quite capable of believing that there are some kinds of observations which do not correlate with future instances of themselves. Random noise exists.
Assuming you have no objection to that, I suppose you can go on preaching that the key mystery of the universe and the basis of all epistemology is induction. I have no objection. But I do think you ought to read Jaynes. Who knows? You might find something there to change your mind or perhaps a clue to dissolving the mystery.
[Edit: Removed opening snark.]
I don’t think induction is of particular importance. We can’t function without assuming its validity. Thus, entertaining the idea that it is invalid is not constructive. I’d be very curious to see someone solve the problem of induction (which I briefly thought this was an attempt at), but it’s hardly an urgent matter.
Picking up on animals not evolving makes about as much sense as picking up on the fact that, if it weren’t for gravity, it would be tough to play badminton. This reinforces my suspicion that our concept of what we’re arguing about is so vastly different that a productive resolution is impossible.
I suppose the origin of this whole digression could be summarized by saying I thought the post was about (the problem of) induction, and was a useless point about a moderately interesting topic. Instead, it’s about (the practice of) induction, making it a decent but not terribly useful point about a rather uninteresting (or at least simple) topic. It is perhaps even less salient than the observation that, if we assume infinite sets of possibilities, then at some point Occam’s razor must work by sheer force of the nature of finite sum infinite sets having to have some arbitrary point after which they decrease.
Ouch. Burn