Sober view as well, and much closer to mine. I definitely agree that compute will be the big bottleneck—GPT-3 and the scaling hypothesis scare the heck out of me.
8 years makes a lot of sense, after all many predictions point to 2030.
A more paranoid me would like to ask, what number would you give to the probabilities of it arriving: a) next week, b) next year?
And also: are you also paranoid like me looking out the window fom the nano-swarms, or think that at least in the very, very near-term it’s still close to impossible?
I am not looking out my window for the nano-swarms; I think there’s a less than 1% chance of that happening this year. We would need a completely new AI paradigm I think, which is not impossible (It’s happened a bunch of times in the past, and there are a few ideas floating around that could be it) but unlikely and especially unlikely to happen all of a sudden without me hearing signs first. And then even with said new paradigm it would be surprising if takeoff was so fast that I saw nanobots before hearing any disturbing news through the grapevine.
So, <1% chance of nano-swarms surprising me this year, <<1% this week.
Maybe something like 2% chance of agentic AGI (or, APS-AI to use Carlsmith’s term) happening this year?
Sober view as well, and much closer to mine. I definitely agree that compute will be the big bottleneck—GPT-3 and the scaling hypothesis scare the heck out of me.
8 years makes a lot of sense, after all many predictions point to 2030.
A more paranoid me would like to ask, what number would you give to the probabilities of it arriving: a) next week, b) next year?
And also: are you also paranoid like me looking out the window fom the nano-swarms, or think that at least in the very, very near-term it’s still close to impossible?
I am not looking out my window for the nano-swarms; I think there’s a less than 1% chance of that happening this year. We would need a completely new AI paradigm I think, which is not impossible (It’s happened a bunch of times in the past, and there are a few ideas floating around that could be it) but unlikely and especially unlikely to happen all of a sudden without me hearing signs first. And then even with said new paradigm it would be surprising if takeoff was so fast that I saw nanobots before hearing any disturbing news through the grapevine.
So, <1% chance of nano-swarms surprising me this year, <<1% this week.
Maybe something like 2% chance of agentic AGI (or, APS-AI to use Carlsmith’s term) happening this year?
Fair argument, thanks.