“My standard for ‘this vaccine is safe enough’ is ‘more safe than the windrawn limerix vaccine’, which was pulled in part due to a 1/25000 probability of cardiac issues, and in part due to lack of success in the market (I’d have taken it). I’d view something with a side effect profile as bad or worse than that as unacceptable to me. ”
This implies a way less than 1⁄30,000 risk of actual death from the vaccine. I don’t think that anyone looking forward from May 2021 who had not yet gotten covid could reasonably predict less than a 1⁄30,000 lifetime risk of death from the pandemic if they resume normal behavior. And the odds, even for a young woman in their twenties, would probably still be higher than 1⁄100,000 for death from covid looking forward from that point than, even if she never resumed normal life.
The relative risks of bad things less than death are similarly lopsided, and it is unlikely there is a death rate for healthy young adults from the vaccines of more than 100k hiding in the data. At the 1⁄40,000 rate, if it existed, it would show up as unusually high summer 2021 age specific excess mortality rates.
But that is a long way around to say: you can’t do a cost benefit calculation by only putting in the numbers on one side of the column. Come up with explicit numbers for the benefits of the vaccine, and put them in your explanation of why you think it is a bad idea to get it.
Thank you for taking a shot, unfortunately, I’m not moved.
My answer to your argument is that risk to me of damage from covid must be multiplied by probability of getting covid before being compared to the side effect risk of getting the vaccine as a healthy person.
If I thought that number was high enough to drive action, I’d have made the radvac and taken it by now. I tracked microcovids early in the pandemic, but my habits haven’t changed, and my risk profile was extremely low (lockdowns did not affect my life much, so I’m an unusual case, there were lengthy periods in 2020 and 2021 where my risk was ‘zero’ rather than ‘effectively zero’). If you’re assuming that the probability of getting an infectious exposure is 1, then the vaccines and NPIs will all look much better.
I’m willing to concede that I might be underestimating the risk of covid to me. Once I make that concession though, I would then need to be convinced not to a) make the radvac or b) seek access to one of the vaccines I view as having a nicer side effect profile (novavax, soberana, some others, I’ll likely get sanofi-gsk when it releases). So even if I accept your argument that I should have some sort of vaccine, I’m far from sold on the ones readily available in the USA.
I haven’t gotten any of the strains, so my approach has worked out thus far.
I mean if your risk was zero, and you don’t care about the downsides of having a risk of zero, go for it. Though I suspect there are mortality risks in being that isolated that are on the order of 1⁄30,000 a year too.
Also, if you want to get a different vaccine, go for it. My wife’s boyfriend got his first two as sinopharm, just get an extra shot or two, and the inactivated vaccines are probably as strong as the mrna, with a more established technology.
Also if you are socially interacting with people in closed spaces more than maybe once a month, I suspect your odds of getting some exposed to some form of covid sooner or later are still probably close to 1.
Though I suspect there are mortality risks in being that isolated that are on the order of 1⁄30,000 a year too.
For some reason, I find this implication particularly irksome. First of all, it’s borderline non sequitur speculative analysis. Second, it’s broadcasting contempt for an elective lifestyle, which seems to be the whole motivation for including it. Unless you really think this sort of statistical prestidigitation supports the point you’re trying to make(?)
Would you accept a similar argument based on how fucking dangerous people are to each other? Going outside to touch grass, breath fresh air and get a little sunshine might have associated health benefits, but there’s also traffic, radiation, wild animals and muggers depending upon where you live. All this epidemiology is a massive headache; just try establishing a baseline and see how well you think that data reflects on you, personally.
The average American has $130k in debt, watches 33hr/wk television, spends 2hr/day on social media, 5hr/day on their cellphone, consumes 11 alcoholic beverages weekly and exercises only 17m/day. And you want us to evaluate associated comorbidities of an introverted lifestyle against that?
I apologize for the rant. I know that everybody has a different bright line for this sort of thing, but at some point playing with numbers and interpreting data slips into the realms of less-than-helpful intellectualizing and this… well, it just felt over the line to me.
Yeah, but I read somewhere that loneliness kills. So actually risking being murdered by grass is safer, because you’ll be less lonely.
I think we agree though.
Making decisions based on tiny probabilities is generally a bad approach. Also, there is no option that is actually safe.
You are right that I have no idea about whether near complete isolation has a higher life expectancy than being normally social, and the claim needed to compare them to make logical sense in that way.
I think the claim does still make sense if interpreted as ‘whether it is positive or negative on net, deciding to be completely isolated has way bigger consequences, even in terms of direct mortality risk, than taking the covid vaccine’ - and thus avoiding the vaccine should not be seen as a major advantage of being isolated.
My attempt at why your reasoning sucks:
“My standard for ‘this vaccine is safe enough’ is ‘more safe than the windrawn limerix vaccine’, which was pulled in part due to a 1/25000 probability of cardiac issues, and in part due to lack of success in the market (I’d have taken it). I’d view something with a side effect profile as bad or worse than that as unacceptable to me. ”
This implies a way less than 1⁄30,000 risk of actual death from the vaccine. I don’t think that anyone looking forward from May 2021 who had not yet gotten covid could reasonably predict less than a 1⁄30,000 lifetime risk of death from the pandemic if they resume normal behavior. And the odds, even for a young woman in their twenties, would probably still be higher than 1⁄100,000 for death from covid looking forward from that point than, even if she never resumed normal life.
The relative risks of bad things less than death are similarly lopsided, and it is unlikely there is a death rate for healthy young adults from the vaccines of more than 100k hiding in the data. At the 1⁄40,000 rate, if it existed, it would show up as unusually high summer 2021 age specific excess mortality rates.
But that is a long way around to say: you can’t do a cost benefit calculation by only putting in the numbers on one side of the column. Come up with explicit numbers for the benefits of the vaccine, and put them in your explanation of why you think it is a bad idea to get it.
Thank you for taking a shot, unfortunately, I’m not moved.
My answer to your argument is that risk to me of damage from covid must be multiplied by probability of getting covid before being compared to the side effect risk of getting the vaccine as a healthy person.
If I thought that number was high enough to drive action, I’d have made the radvac and taken it by now. I tracked microcovids early in the pandemic, but my habits haven’t changed, and my risk profile was extremely low (lockdowns did not affect my life much, so I’m an unusual case, there were lengthy periods in 2020 and 2021 where my risk was ‘zero’ rather than ‘effectively zero’). If you’re assuming that the probability of getting an infectious exposure is 1, then the vaccines and NPIs will all look much better.
I’m willing to concede that I might be underestimating the risk of covid to me. Once I make that concession though, I would then need to be convinced not to a) make the radvac or b) seek access to one of the vaccines I view as having a nicer side effect profile (novavax, soberana, some others, I’ll likely get sanofi-gsk when it releases). So even if I accept your argument that I should have some sort of vaccine, I’m far from sold on the ones readily available in the USA.
I haven’t gotten any of the strains, so my approach has worked out thus far.
I mean if your risk was zero, and you don’t care about the downsides of having a risk of zero, go for it. Though I suspect there are mortality risks in being that isolated that are on the order of 1⁄30,000 a year too.
Also, if you want to get a different vaccine, go for it. My wife’s boyfriend got his first two as sinopharm, just get an extra shot or two, and the inactivated vaccines are probably as strong as the mrna, with a more established technology.
Also if you are socially interacting with people in closed spaces more than maybe once a month, I suspect your odds of getting some exposed to some form of covid sooner or later are still probably close to 1.
For some reason, I find this implication particularly irksome. First of all, it’s borderline non sequitur speculative analysis. Second, it’s broadcasting contempt for an elective lifestyle, which seems to be the whole motivation for including it. Unless you really think this sort of statistical prestidigitation supports the point you’re trying to make(?)
Would you accept a similar argument based on how fucking dangerous people are to each other? Going outside to touch grass, breath fresh air and get a little sunshine might have associated health benefits, but there’s also traffic, radiation, wild animals and muggers depending upon where you live. All this epidemiology is a massive headache; just try establishing a baseline and see how well you think that data reflects on you, personally.
The average American has $130k in debt, watches 33hr/wk television, spends 2hr/day on social media, 5hr/day on their cellphone, consumes 11 alcoholic beverages weekly and exercises only 17m/day. And you want us to evaluate associated comorbidities of an introverted lifestyle against that?
I apologize for the rant. I know that everybody has a different bright line for this sort of thing, but at some point playing with numbers and interpreting data slips into the realms of less-than-helpful intellectualizing and this… well, it just felt over the line to me.
Yeah, but I read somewhere that loneliness kills. So actually risking being murdered by grass is safer, because you’ll be less lonely.
I think we agree though.
Making decisions based on tiny probabilities is generally a bad approach. Also, there is no option that is actually safe.
You are right that I have no idea about whether near complete isolation has a higher life expectancy than being normally social, and the claim needed to compare them to make logical sense in that way.
I think the claim does still make sense if interpreted as ‘whether it is positive or negative on net, deciding to be completely isolated has way bigger consequences, even in terms of direct mortality risk, than taking the covid vaccine’ - and thus avoiding the vaccine should not be seen as a major advantage of being isolated.