I mean if your risk was zero, and you don’t care about the downsides of having a risk of zero, go for it. Though I suspect there are mortality risks in being that isolated that are on the order of 1⁄30,000 a year too.
Also, if you want to get a different vaccine, go for it. My wife’s boyfriend got his first two as sinopharm, just get an extra shot or two, and the inactivated vaccines are probably as strong as the mrna, with a more established technology.
Also if you are socially interacting with people in closed spaces more than maybe once a month, I suspect your odds of getting some exposed to some form of covid sooner or later are still probably close to 1.
Though I suspect there are mortality risks in being that isolated that are on the order of 1⁄30,000 a year too.
For some reason, I find this implication particularly irksome. First of all, it’s borderline non sequitur speculative analysis. Second, it’s broadcasting contempt for an elective lifestyle, which seems to be the whole motivation for including it. Unless you really think this sort of statistical prestidigitation supports the point you’re trying to make(?)
Would you accept a similar argument based on how fucking dangerous people are to each other? Going outside to touch grass, breath fresh air and get a little sunshine might have associated health benefits, but there’s also traffic, radiation, wild animals and muggers depending upon where you live. All this epidemiology is a massive headache; just try establishing a baseline and see how well you think that data reflects on you, personally.
The average American has $130k in debt, watches 33hr/wk television, spends 2hr/day on social media, 5hr/day on their cellphone, consumes 11 alcoholic beverages weekly and exercises only 17m/day. And you want us to evaluate associated comorbidities of an introverted lifestyle against that?
I apologize for the rant. I know that everybody has a different bright line for this sort of thing, but at some point playing with numbers and interpreting data slips into the realms of less-than-helpful intellectualizing and this… well, it just felt over the line to me.
Yeah, but I read somewhere that loneliness kills. So actually risking being murdered by grass is safer, because you’ll be less lonely.
I think we agree though.
Making decisions based on tiny probabilities is generally a bad approach. Also, there is no option that is actually safe.
You are right that I have no idea about whether near complete isolation has a higher life expectancy than being normally social, and the claim needed to compare them to make logical sense in that way.
I think the claim does still make sense if interpreted as ‘whether it is positive or negative on net, deciding to be completely isolated has way bigger consequences, even in terms of direct mortality risk, than taking the covid vaccine’ - and thus avoiding the vaccine should not be seen as a major advantage of being isolated.
I mean if your risk was zero, and you don’t care about the downsides of having a risk of zero, go for it. Though I suspect there are mortality risks in being that isolated that are on the order of 1⁄30,000 a year too.
Also, if you want to get a different vaccine, go for it. My wife’s boyfriend got his first two as sinopharm, just get an extra shot or two, and the inactivated vaccines are probably as strong as the mrna, with a more established technology.
Also if you are socially interacting with people in closed spaces more than maybe once a month, I suspect your odds of getting some exposed to some form of covid sooner or later are still probably close to 1.
For some reason, I find this implication particularly irksome. First of all, it’s borderline non sequitur speculative analysis. Second, it’s broadcasting contempt for an elective lifestyle, which seems to be the whole motivation for including it. Unless you really think this sort of statistical prestidigitation supports the point you’re trying to make(?)
Would you accept a similar argument based on how fucking dangerous people are to each other? Going outside to touch grass, breath fresh air and get a little sunshine might have associated health benefits, but there’s also traffic, radiation, wild animals and muggers depending upon where you live. All this epidemiology is a massive headache; just try establishing a baseline and see how well you think that data reflects on you, personally.
The average American has $130k in debt, watches 33hr/wk television, spends 2hr/day on social media, 5hr/day on their cellphone, consumes 11 alcoholic beverages weekly and exercises only 17m/day. And you want us to evaluate associated comorbidities of an introverted lifestyle against that?
I apologize for the rant. I know that everybody has a different bright line for this sort of thing, but at some point playing with numbers and interpreting data slips into the realms of less-than-helpful intellectualizing and this… well, it just felt over the line to me.
Yeah, but I read somewhere that loneliness kills. So actually risking being murdered by grass is safer, because you’ll be less lonely.
I think we agree though.
Making decisions based on tiny probabilities is generally a bad approach. Also, there is no option that is actually safe.
You are right that I have no idea about whether near complete isolation has a higher life expectancy than being normally social, and the claim needed to compare them to make logical sense in that way.
I think the claim does still make sense if interpreted as ‘whether it is positive or negative on net, deciding to be completely isolated has way bigger consequences, even in terms of direct mortality risk, than taking the covid vaccine’ - and thus avoiding the vaccine should not be seen as a major advantage of being isolated.