He now assigns 3% rather than 0.1% to the majority of AGI researchers already agreeing with safety concerns.
He now assigns 40% rather than 35% to the majority of AGI researchers agreeing with safety concerns after 2100 or never.
Overall, Rohin’s posterior is a bit more optimistic than his prior and more uncertain.
Ethan Perez’s snapshot wins the prize for the most accurate prediction of Rohin’s posterior. Ethan kept a similar distribution shape while decreasing the probability >2100 less than the other submissions.
The prize for a comment that updated Rohin’s thinking goes to Jacob Pfau! This was determined by a draw with comments weighted proportionally to how much they updated Rohin’s thinking.
Thanks to everyone who participated and congratulations to the winners! Feel free to continue making comments and distributions, and sharing any feedback you have on this competition.
Cool! I feel like I should go into more detail on how I made the posterior prediction then—I just predicted relative increases/decreases in probability for each probability bucket in Rohin’s prior:
4x increase in probability for 2020-2022
20% increase for 2023-2032
15% increase for 2033-2040
10% decrease for 2041-2099
10% decrease for 2100+
Then I just let Elicit renormalize the probabilities.
I guess this process incorporates the “meta-prior” than Rohin won’t change his prior much, and then I estimated the relative increase/decrease margins based on the number and upvotes of comments. E.g., there were a lot of highly voted comments that Rohin should increase his probability in the <2022 range, so I predicted a larger change.
Rohin has created his posterior distribution! Key differences from his prior are at the bounds:
He now assigns 3% rather than 0.1% to the majority of AGI researchers already agreeing with safety concerns.
He now assigns 40% rather than 35% to the majority of AGI researchers agreeing with safety concerns after 2100 or never.
Overall, Rohin’s posterior is a bit more optimistic than his prior and more uncertain.
Ethan Perez’s snapshot wins the prize for the most accurate prediction of Rohin’s posterior. Ethan kept a similar distribution shape while decreasing the probability >2100 less than the other submissions.
The prize for a comment that updated Rohin’s thinking goes to Jacob Pfau! This was determined by a draw with comments weighted proportionally to how much they updated Rohin’s thinking.
Thanks to everyone who participated and congratulations to the winners! Feel free to continue making comments and distributions, and sharing any feedback you have on this competition.
Cool! I feel like I should go into more detail on how I made the posterior prediction then—I just predicted relative increases/decreases in probability for each probability bucket in Rohin’s prior:
4x increase in probability for 2020-2022
20% increase for 2023-2032
15% increase for 2033-2040
10% decrease for 2041-2099
10% decrease for 2100+
Then I just let Elicit renormalize the probabilities.
I guess this process incorporates the “meta-prior” than Rohin won’t change his prior much, and then I estimated the relative increase/decrease margins based on the number and upvotes of comments. E.g., there were a lot of highly voted comments that Rohin should increase his probability in the <2022 range, so I predicted a larger change.