Cool! I feel like I should go into more detail on how I made the posterior prediction then—I just predicted relative increases/decreases in probability for each probability bucket in Rohin’s prior:
4x increase in probability for 2020-2022
20% increase for 2023-2032
15% increase for 2033-2040
10% decrease for 2041-2099
10% decrease for 2100+
Then I just let Elicit renormalize the probabilities.
I guess this process incorporates the “meta-prior” than Rohin won’t change his prior much, and then I estimated the relative increase/decrease margins based on the number and upvotes of comments. E.g., there were a lot of highly voted comments that Rohin should increase his probability in the <2022 range, so I predicted a larger change.
Cool! I feel like I should go into more detail on how I made the posterior prediction then—I just predicted relative increases/decreases in probability for each probability bucket in Rohin’s prior:
4x increase in probability for 2020-2022
20% increase for 2023-2032
15% increase for 2033-2040
10% decrease for 2041-2099
10% decrease for 2100+
Then I just let Elicit renormalize the probabilities.
I guess this process incorporates the “meta-prior” than Rohin won’t change his prior much, and then I estimated the relative increase/decrease margins based on the number and upvotes of comments. E.g., there were a lot of highly voted comments that Rohin should increase his probability in the <2022 range, so I predicted a larger change.