But “people who are taking a training where that game would be used” are much closer.
And note that I didn’t say I saw the solution when presented with the game rules alone—only when I had finished reading through to the conclusion, and then thought about it. Which is a much lower bar.
I disagree. The key factor to observe bullwhip effect is no coordination among players. For example, retailer does not share consumer demand information with the wholesaler, and the wholesaler does not share demand information with the distributor, etc.
If anyone knows about the simulation, and they play to win, they will implement a dampening effect at whatever stage they are (assuming they don’t just say something out loud before things start, and let everyone do it).
Depending on the exact mechanics of the game, there are different ways to smooth out demand fluctuations at minimal cost.
That game doesn’t work if any participant has heard of it, or the effect, just FYI
Do you predict this or know from first-hand experience?
It’s just a prediction, based on the first time I read about that “game” and thought about what I would do in it.
Most people are not like you. Try it out like this:
https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1414647916728229912
But “people who are taking a training where that game would be used” are much closer.
And note that I didn’t say I saw the solution when presented with the game rules alone—only when I had finished reading through to the conclusion, and then thought about it. Which is a much lower bar.
I disagree. The key factor to observe bullwhip effect is no coordination among players. For example, retailer does not share consumer demand information with the wholesaler, and the wholesaler does not share demand information with the distributor, etc.
If anyone knows about the simulation, and they play to win, they will implement a dampening effect at whatever stage they are (assuming they don’t just say something out loud before things start, and let everyone do it). Depending on the exact mechanics of the game, there are different ways to smooth out demand fluctuations at minimal cost.