Big Edit: Jack formulated my ideas better, so see his comment. This was the original:
The fact that the universe hasn’t been noticeably paperclipped has got to be evidence for a) the unlikelihood of superintelligences, b) quantum immortality, c) our universe being the result of a non-obvious paperclipping (the theists were right after all, and the fine-tuned universe argument is valid), d) the non-existence of intelligent aliens, or e) that superintelligences tend not to optimize things that are astronomically visible (related to c). Which of these scenarios is most likely? Related question: If we built a superintelligence without worrying about friendliness or morality at all, what kind of things would it optimize? Can we even make a guess? Would it be satisfied to be a dormant Laplace’s Demon?
Restructuring since the fact that the universe hasn’t been noticeably paperclipped can’t possible be considered evidence for (c).
The universe has either been paperclipped (1) or it hasn’t been (2).
If (1):
(A) we have observed paperclipping and not realized it (someone was really into stars, galaxies and dark matter)
(B) Our universe is the result of paperclipping (theists were right, sort of)
(C) Superintelligences tend not to optimize things that are astronomically visible.
If (2)
(D) Super-intelligences are impossible.
(E) Quantum immortality true.
(F) No intelligent aliens.
(G) Some variety of simulation hypothesis is true.
(H) Galactic aliens exist but have never constructed a super-intelligence do to a well enforced prohibition on AI construction/research, an evolved deficiency in thinking about minds as a physical object (substance dualism is far more difficult for them to avoid than it is for us), or some other reason that we can’t fathom.
(I) Friendliness is easy + Alien ethics doesn’t include any values that lead to us noticing them.
Big Edit: Jack formulated my ideas better, so see his comment.
This was the original: The fact that the universe hasn’t been noticeably paperclipped has got to be evidence for a) the unlikelihood of superintelligences, b) quantum immortality, c) our universe being the result of a non-obvious paperclipping (the theists were right after all, and the fine-tuned universe argument is valid), d) the non-existence of intelligent aliens, or e) that superintelligences tend not to optimize things that are astronomically visible (related to c). Which of these scenarios is most likely? Related question: If we built a superintelligence without worrying about friendliness or morality at all, what kind of things would it optimize? Can we even make a guess? Would it be satisfied to be a dormant Laplace’s Demon?
Restructuring since the fact that the universe hasn’t been noticeably paperclipped can’t possible be considered evidence for (c).
The universe has either been paperclipped (1) or it hasn’t been (2).
If (1):
(A) we have observed paperclipping and not realized it (someone was really into stars, galaxies and dark matter)
(B) Our universe is the result of paperclipping (theists were right, sort of)
(C) Superintelligences tend not to optimize things that are astronomically visible.
If (2)
(D) Super-intelligences are impossible.
(E) Quantum immortality true.
(F) No intelligent aliens.
(G) Some variety of simulation hypothesis is true.
(H) Galactic aliens exist but have never constructed a super-intelligence do to a well enforced prohibition on AI construction/research, an evolved deficiency in thinking about minds as a physical object (substance dualism is far more difficult for them to avoid than it is for us), or some other reason that we can’t fathom.
(I) Friendliness is easy + Alien ethics doesn’t include any values that lead to us noticing them.
d) should be changed to the sparseness of intelligent aliens and limits to how fast even a superintelligence can extend its sphere of influence.
Some of that was probably needed to contextualize my comment.
I’ll replace it without the spacing so it’s more compact. Sorry about that, I’ll work on my comment etiquette.