That is an interesting number, however I think it’s a bit unclear how to think about defrauding here. If you steal $1000 dollars, and then I sue you and get that money back, it’s not like you “stole zero dollars”.
I agree it matters how much is recoverable, but most of the damage from FTX is not about the lost deposits specifically anyways, and I think the correct order of magnitude of the real costs here is probably greater than the money that was defrauded, though I think reasonable people can disagree on the number here. Similarly I think when you steal a $1000 bike from me, even if I get it back, the economic damage that you introduced is probably roughly on the order of the cost of the bike.
I also don’t believe the $1.8B number. I’ve been following the reports around this very closely and every few weeks some news article claims vastly different fractions of funds have been recovered. While not a perfect estimator, I’ve been using the price at which FTX bankruptcy claims are trading at, which I think is currently at around 60%, suggesting more like $4B missing (claims of Alameda Research are trading at 15%, driving that number down further, but I don’t know what fraction of the liabilities were Alameda claims).
Yep that’s fair, there is some subjectivity here. I was hoping that the charges from SDNY would have a specific amount that Sam was alleged to have defrauded, but they don’t seem to.
Regarding $4B missing: adding in Anthropic gets another $4B on the EA side of the ledger, and founders pledge another $1B. The value produced by Anthropic is questionable, and maybe negative of course, but I think by the strict definition of “donated or built in terms of successful companies” EA comes out ahead.
(And OpenAI gets another $80B, so if you count that then I think even the most aggressive definition of how much FTX defrauded is smaller. But obviously OAI’s EA credentials are dubious.)
Regarding $4B missing: adding in Anthropic gets another $4B on the EA side of the ledger, and founders pledge another $1B.
Well, I mean, I think making money off of building doomsday machines goes on the cost side of the ledger, but I do think it applies to the specific point I made above and I think that’s fair. Anthropic is quite successful at a scale that is not that incomparable to the size of the FTX fraud.
That is an interesting number, however I think it’s a bit unclear how to think about defrauding here. If you steal $1000 dollars, and then I sue you and get that money back, it’s not like you “stole zero dollars”.
I agree it matters how much is recoverable, but most of the damage from FTX is not about the lost deposits specifically anyways, and I think the correct order of magnitude of the real costs here is probably greater than the money that was defrauded, though I think reasonable people can disagree on the number here. Similarly I think when you steal a $1000 bike from me, even if I get it back, the economic damage that you introduced is probably roughly on the order of the cost of the bike.
I also don’t believe the $1.8B number. I’ve been following the reports around this very closely and every few weeks some news article claims vastly different fractions of funds have been recovered. While not a perfect estimator, I’ve been using the price at which FTX bankruptcy claims are trading at, which I think is currently at around 60%, suggesting more like $4B missing (claims of Alameda Research are trading at 15%, driving that number down further, but I don’t know what fraction of the liabilities were Alameda claims).
Yep that’s fair, there is some subjectivity here. I was hoping that the charges from SDNY would have a specific amount that Sam was alleged to have defrauded, but they don’t seem to.
Regarding $4B missing: adding in Anthropic gets another $4B on the EA side of the ledger, and founders pledge another $1B. The value produced by Anthropic is questionable, and maybe negative of course, but I think by the strict definition of “donated or built in terms of successful companies” EA comes out ahead.
(And OpenAI gets another $80B, so if you count that then I think even the most aggressive definition of how much FTX defrauded is smaller. But obviously OAI’s EA credentials are dubious.)
Well, I mean, I think making money off of building doomsday machines goes on the cost side of the ledger, but I do think it applies to the specific point I made above and I think that’s fair. Anthropic is quite successful at a scale that is not that incomparable to the size of the FTX fraud.
We have Wildeford’s Third Law: “Most >10 year forecasts are technically also AI forecasts”.
We need a law like “Most statements about the value of EA are technically also AI forecasts”.