I also expect government control; see If we solve alignment, do we die anyway? for musings about the risks thereof. But it is a possible partial solution to job loss. It’s a lot tougher to pass a law saying “no one can make this promising new technology even though it will vastly increase economic productivity” than to just show up to one company and say “heeeey so we couldn’t help but notice you guys are building something that will utterly shift the balance of power in the world.… can we just, you know, sit in and hear what you’re doing with it and maybe kibbitz a bit?” Then nationalize it officially if and when that seems necessary.
For politicians, yes—but the new administration looks to be strongly pro-tech (unless DJ Trump gets a bee in his bonnet and turns dramatically anti-Musk).
For the national security apparatus, the second seems more in line with how they get things done. And I expect them to twig to the dramatic implications much faster than the politicians do. In this case, there’s not even anything illegal or difficult about just having some liasons at OAI and an informal request to have them present in any important meetings.
At this point I’d be surprised to see meaningful legislation slowing AI/AGI progress in the US, because the “we’re racing China” narrative is so compelling—particularly to the good old military-industrial complex, but also to people at large.
Slowing down might be handing the race to China, or at least a near-tie.
I am becoming more sure that would beat going full-speed without a solid alignment plan. Despite my complete failure to interest anyone in the question of Who is Xi Jinping? in terms of how he or his successors would use AGI. I don’t think he’s sociopathic/sadistic enough to create worse x-risks or s-risks than rushing to AGI does. But I don’t know.
We still somehow got the steam engine, electricity, cars, etc.
There is an element of international competition to it. If we slack here, China will probably raise armies of robots with unlimited firepower and take over the world. (They constantly show aggression)
The longshoreman strike is only allowed (I think) because the west coast did automate and somehow are less efficient than the east coast for example.
If we slack here, China will probably raise armies of robots with unlimited firepower and take over the world
Or maybe they will accidentally ban AI too due to being a dysfunctional autocracy, as autocracies are wont to do, all the while remaining just as clueless regarding what’s happening as their US counterparts banning AI to protect the jobs.
I think a lot of this is wishful thinking from safetyists who want AI development to stop. This may be reductionist but almost every pause historically can be explained economics.
Nuclear—war usage is wholly owned by the state and developed to its saturation point (i.e. once you have nukes that can kill all your enemies, there is little reason to develop them more). Energy-wise, supposedly, it was hamstrung by regulation, but in countries like China where development went unfettered, they are still not dominant. This tells me a lot it not being developed is it not being economical.
For bio related things, Eroom’s law reigns supreme. It is just economically unviable to discover drugs in the way we do. Despite this, it’s clear that bioweapons are regularly researched by government labs. The USG being so eager to fund gof research despite its bad optics should tell you as much.
Or maybe they will accidentally ban AI too due to being a dysfunctional autocracy—
I remember many essays from people all over this site on how China wouldn’t be able to get to X-1 nm (or the crucial step for it) for decades, and China would always figure a way to get to that nm or step within a few months. They surpassed our chip lithography expectations for them. They are very competent. They are run by probably the most competent government bureaucracy in the world. I don’t know what it is, but people keep underestimating China’s progress. When they aim their efforts on a target, they almost always achieve it.
Rapid progress is a powerful attractor state that requires a global hegemon to stop. China is very keen on the possibilities of AI which is why they stop at nothing to get their hands on Nvidia GPUs. They also have literally no reason to develop a centralized project they are fully in control of. We have superhuman AI that seem quite easy to control already. What is stopping this centralized project on their end. No one is buying that even o3, which is nearly superhuman in math and coding, and probably lots of scientific research, is going to attempt world takeover.
I also expect government control; see If we solve alignment, do we die anyway? for musings about the risks thereof. But it is a possible partial solution to job loss. It’s a lot tougher to pass a law saying “no one can make this promising new technology even though it will vastly increase economic productivity” than to just show up to one company and say “heeeey so we couldn’t help but notice you guys are building something that will utterly shift the balance of power in the world.… can we just, you know, sit in and hear what you’re doing with it and maybe kibbitz a bit?” Then nationalize it officially if and when that seems necessary.
I actually think doing the former is considerably more in line with the way things are done/closer to the Overton window.
For politicians, yes—but the new administration looks to be strongly pro-tech (unless DJ Trump gets a bee in his bonnet and turns dramatically anti-Musk).
For the national security apparatus, the second seems more in line with how they get things done. And I expect them to twig to the dramatic implications much faster than the politicians do. In this case, there’s not even anything illegal or difficult about just having some liasons at OAI and an informal request to have them present in any important meetings.
At this point I’d be surprised to see meaningful legislation slowing AI/AGI progress in the US, because the “we’re racing China” narrative is so compelling—particularly to the good old military-industrial complex, but also to people at large.
Slowing down might be handing the race to China, or at least a near-tie.
I am becoming more sure that would beat going full-speed without a solid alignment plan. Despite my complete failure to interest anyone in the question of Who is Xi Jinping? in terms of how he or his successors would use AGI. I don’t think he’s sociopathic/sadistic enough to create worse x-risks or s-risks than rushing to AGI does. But I don’t know.
We still somehow got the steam engine, electricity, cars, etc.
There is an element of international competition to it. If we slack here, China will probably raise armies of robots with unlimited firepower and take over the world. (They constantly show aggression)
The longshoreman strike is only allowed (I think) because the west coast did automate and somehow are less efficient than the east coast for example.
Counterpoints: nuclear power, pharmaceuticals, bioengineering, urban development.
Or maybe they will accidentally ban AI too due to being a dysfunctional autocracy, as autocracies are wont to do, all the while remaining just as clueless regarding what’s happening as their US counterparts banning AI to protect the jobs.
I don’t really expect that to happen, but survival-without-dignity scenarios do seem salient.
I think a lot of this is wishful thinking from safetyists who want AI development to stop. This may be reductionist but almost every pause historically can be explained economics.
Nuclear—war usage is wholly owned by the state and developed to its saturation point (i.e. once you have nukes that can kill all your enemies, there is little reason to develop them more). Energy-wise, supposedly, it was hamstrung by regulation, but in countries like China where development went unfettered, they are still not dominant. This tells me a lot it not being developed is it not being economical.
For bio related things, Eroom’s law reigns supreme. It is just economically unviable to discover drugs in the way we do. Despite this, it’s clear that bioweapons are regularly researched by government labs. The USG being so eager to fund gof research despite its bad optics should tell you as much.
Or maybe they will accidentally ban AI too due to being a dysfunctional autocracy—
I remember many essays from people all over this site on how China wouldn’t be able to get to X-1 nm (or the crucial step for it) for decades, and China would always figure a way to get to that nm or step within a few months. They surpassed our chip lithography expectations for them. They are very competent. They are run by probably the most competent government bureaucracy in the world. I don’t know what it is, but people keep underestimating China’s progress. When they aim their efforts on a target, they almost always achieve it.
Rapid progress is a powerful attractor state that requires a global hegemon to stop. China is very keen on the possibilities of AI which is why they stop at nothing to get their hands on Nvidia GPUs. They also have literally no reason to develop a centralized project they are fully in control of. We have superhuman AI that seem quite easy to control already. What is stopping this centralized project on their end. No one is buying that even o3, which is nearly superhuman in math and coding, and probably lots of scientific research, is going to attempt world takeover.