As a result, my timelines have also concentrated more around a somewhat narrower band of years. Previously, my probability increased from 10% to 60% over the course of the ~32 years from ~2032 and ~2064; now this happens over the ~24 years between ~2026 and ~2050.
Huh, I claim Ajeya’s timelines are much more coherent if we replace 2026 with 2027.5 or 2028.* 10% between now and 2026, then 5% between 2026 and 2030, then 20% between 2030 and 2036 is really weird.
*Changing 2026 (rather than 2030) just because Ajeya’s 2026 cumulative probability seems less considered than her 2030 and 2036 cumulative probabilities.
(Coherence aside, when I now look at that number it does seem a bit too high, and I feel tempted to move it to 2027-2028, but I dunno, that kind of intuition is likely to change quickly from day to day.)
Aren’t a lot of compute-growth trends likely to run out of room before 2026? If so, a bump before 2026 could make sense. (Though less so if we think compute is unlikely to be the bottleneck for TAI – I don’t know to what degree people see the chinchilla insight as a significant update here.)
While that is more coherent, it feels wrong to change the numbers like that if it causes losing track of the intuition of TAI by 2026 with probability 10%
10% probability by 2026 (!!)
Huh, I claim Ajeya’s timelines are much more coherent if we replace 2026 with 2027.5 or 2028.* 10% between now and 2026, then 5% between 2026 and 2030, then 20% between 2030 and 2036 is really weird.
*Changing 2026 (rather than 2030) just because Ajeya’s 2026 cumulative probability seems less considered than her 2030 and 2036 cumulative probabilities.
(Coherence aside, when I now look at that number it does seem a bit too high, and I feel tempted to move it to 2027-2028, but I dunno, that kind of intuition is likely to change quickly from day to day.)
Aren’t a lot of compute-growth trends likely to run out of room before 2026? If so, a bump before 2026 could make sense. (Though less so if we think compute is unlikely to be the bottleneck for TAI – I don’t know to what degree people see the chinchilla insight as a significant update here.)
While that is more coherent, it feels wrong to change the numbers like that if it causes losing track of the intuition of TAI by 2026 with probability 10%