As opposed to what, linear? Or s-curvy? S-curves look exponential until you get close to the theoretical limit. I doubt we are close to the theoretical limits.
Ajeya bases her estimate on empirical data, so if you want to see whether it’s exponential go look at that I guess.
Is there reason to believe algorithmic improvements follow an exponential curve? Do you happen to know a good source on this?
As opposed to what, linear? Or s-curvy? S-curves look exponential until you get close to the theoretical limit. I doubt we are close to the theoretical limits.
Ajeya bases her estimate on empirical data, so if you want to see whether it’s exponential go look at that I guess.