A fair response to this requires a post that Less Wrong desperately needs to read: People Are Crazy, the World Is Mad. Unfortunately this requires that I convince Michael Vassar or Tom McCabe to write it. Thus, I am now on a mission to enlist the great power of Thomas McCabe.
(A not-so-fair response: you underestimate the extent to which academia is batshit insane just like nearly every individual in it, you overestimate the extent to which scientists ever look outside of their tiny fields of specialization, you overestimate the extent to which the most rational scientists are willing to put their reputations on the line by even considering much less accepting an idea as seemingly kooky as ‘human-level AI by 2035’, and you underestimate the extent to which the most rational scientists are starting to look at the possibility of AGI in the next 50 years (which amounts to non-trivial probability mass in the next 15). I guess I don’t know who the very best scientists are. (Dawkins and Tooby/Cosmides impress me a lot; Tooby was at the Summit. He signed a book that’s on my table top. :D ) Basically, I think you’re giving academia too much credit. These are all assertions, though; like I said, this response is not a fair one, but this way at least you can watch for a majoritarian bias in your thinking and a contrarian bias in my arguments.)
As for your “not-so-fair response”—I seriously doubt that you know enough about academia to have any confidence in this view. I think that first hand experience is crucial to developing a good understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of academia.
(I say this with all due respect—I’ve read and admired some of your top level posts.)
As for your “not-so-fair response”—I seriously doubt that you know enough about academia to have any confidence in this view. I think that first hand experience is crucial to developing a good understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of academia.
I definitely don’t have the necessary first-hand-experience: I was reporting second-hand the impressions of a few people who I respect but whose insights I’ve yet to verify. Sorry, I should have said that. I deserve some amount of shame for my lack of epistemic hygiene there.
(I say this with all due respect—I’ve read and admired some of your top level posts.)
Thanks! I really appreciate it. A big reason for the large amounts of comments I’ve been barfing up lately is a desire to improve my writing ability such that I’ll be able to make more and better posts in the future.
A fair response to this requires a post that Less Wrong desperately needs to read: People Are Crazy, the World Is Mad. Unfortunately this requires that I convince Michael Vassar or Tom McCabe to write it. Thus, I am now on a mission to enlist the great power of Thomas McCabe.
(A not-so-fair response: you underestimate the extent to which academia is batshit insane just like nearly every individual in it, you overestimate the extent to which scientists ever look outside of their tiny fields of specialization, you overestimate the extent to which the most rational scientists are willing to put their reputations on the line by even considering much less accepting an idea as seemingly kooky as ‘human-level AI by 2035’, and you underestimate the extent to which the most rational scientists are starting to look at the possibility of AGI in the next 50 years (which amounts to non-trivial probability mass in the next 15). I guess I don’t know who the very best scientists are. (Dawkins and Tooby/Cosmides impress me a lot; Tooby was at the Summit. He signed a book that’s on my table top. :D ) Basically, I think you’re giving academia too much credit. These are all assertions, though; like I said, this response is not a fair one, but this way at least you can watch for a majoritarian bias in your thinking and a contrarian bias in my arguments.)
I look forward to the hypothetical post.
As for your “not-so-fair response”—I seriously doubt that you know enough about academia to have any confidence in this view. I think that first hand experience is crucial to developing a good understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of academia.
(I say this with all due respect—I’ve read and admired some of your top level posts.)
I definitely don’t have the necessary first-hand-experience: I was reporting second-hand the impressions of a few people who I respect but whose insights I’ve yet to verify. Sorry, I should have said that. I deserve some amount of shame for my lack of epistemic hygiene there.
Thanks! I really appreciate it. A big reason for the large amounts of comments I’ve been barfing up lately is a desire to improve my writing ability such that I’ll be able to make more and better posts in the future.