“The more interesting thing is when you make a bet where a negative outcome should force a large update.”
I think that’s what odds are for. If you’re convinced (incorrectly) that something is very unlikely, you should be willing to give large odds. You can’t really say “I thought this was 40% likely, and I happened to get it wrong” if you gave 5:1 odds initially.
(And on the other side, the person who took the bet should absolutely say they are making a small update towards the other model, because it’s far weaker evidence for them.)
Sorta, but you might have 50:50 odds with a very large spread (both people are very confident in their side) or with a very small spread. So it might be helpful to record that.
“The more interesting thing is when you make a bet where a negative outcome should force a large update.”
I think that’s what odds are for. If you’re convinced (incorrectly) that something is very unlikely, you should be willing to give large odds. You can’t really say “I thought this was 40% likely, and I happened to get it wrong” if you gave 5:1 odds initially.
(And on the other side, the person who took the bet should absolutely say they are making a small update towards the other model, because it’s far weaker evidence for them.)
Sorta, but you might have 50:50 odds with a very large spread (both people are very confident in their side) or with a very small spread. So it might be helpful to record that.