It does seem like a fair bit of time, people might just say “well, I got unlucky, but my models are the same, and, I dunno I guess I slightly adjusted the weights of my model?”. The more interesting thing is when you make a bet where a negative outcome should force a large update.
Interesting; it’s similar to if you make a calculated bet in poker when the odds are in your favor but still lose. In that case, your decision was still correct as well as the means you used to arrive at your decision. So there wouldn’t be much to write about. Perhaps in this case the loser could write about why they think the winner actually made the wrong decision to continue playing the hand.
“The more interesting thing is when you make a bet where a negative outcome should force a large update.”
I think that’s what odds are for. If you’re convinced (incorrectly) that something is very unlikely, you should be willing to give large odds. You can’t really say “I thought this was 40% likely, and I happened to get it wrong” if you gave 5:1 odds initially.
(And on the other side, the person who took the bet should absolutely say they are making a small update towards the other model, because it’s far weaker evidence for them.)
Sorta, but you might have 50:50 odds with a very large spread (both people are very confident in their side) or with a very small spread. So it might be helpful to record that.
Yeah, this seems great to me.
It does seem like a fair bit of time, people might just say “well, I got unlucky, but my models are the same, and, I dunno I guess I slightly adjusted the weights of my model?”. The more interesting thing is when you make a bet where a negative outcome should force a large update.
Interesting; it’s similar to if you make a calculated bet in poker when the odds are in your favor but still lose. In that case, your decision was still correct as well as the means you used to arrive at your decision. So there wouldn’t be much to write about. Perhaps in this case the loser could write about why they think the winner actually made the wrong decision to continue playing the hand.
“The more interesting thing is when you make a bet where a negative outcome should force a large update.”
I think that’s what odds are for. If you’re convinced (incorrectly) that something is very unlikely, you should be willing to give large odds. You can’t really say “I thought this was 40% likely, and I happened to get it wrong” if you gave 5:1 odds initially.
(And on the other side, the person who took the bet should absolutely say they are making a small update towards the other model, because it’s far weaker evidence for them.)
Sorta, but you might have 50:50 odds with a very large spread (both people are very confident in their side) or with a very small spread. So it might be helpful to record that.