I think making utility linear in years is a mistake. The remote possibility of finding a physics hack to control infinite matter in finite time does not curbstomp all other considerations, therefore the utility of that outcome is finite. I prefer 66% of BB(1000) years to 33% of BB(10000) years. I am uncertain about my preferences, but utility functions are not aggregated by taking the expectation.
The only authority on your preferences is yourself; but reasonable agents, when a hypothetical proves them dutch-bookable/incoherent, will become less certain about their preferences.
What this cashes out to is that you should calculate the value not of a year but of (an extra 1% chance of) making it to takeoff. (From what you would do in (perhaps physically impossible) hypotheticals.)
Descriptively I know that hyperbolic discounting is a thing. But prescriptively, it’s not clear to me that it should be. Do you mind elaborating on why you think it should be?
Also, I think this only really starts to change the conclusions we draw when the discounting is significant, eg. a post-singularity year going from $100k to $10k rather than $100k to $90k. It sounds like you are saying it should be significant. Is that true? Why is that?
I think making utility linear in years is a mistake. The remote possibility of finding a physics hack to control infinite matter in finite time does not curbstomp all other considerations, therefore the utility of that outcome is finite. I prefer 66% of BB(1000) years to 33% of BB(10000) years. I am uncertain about my preferences, but utility functions are not aggregated by taking the expectation.
The only authority on your preferences is yourself; but reasonable agents, when a hypothetical proves them dutch-bookable/incoherent, will become less certain about their preferences.
What this cashes out to is that you should calculate the value not of a year but of (an extra 1% chance of) making it to takeoff. (From what you would do in (perhaps physically impossible) hypotheticals.)
Descriptively I know that hyperbolic discounting is a thing. But prescriptively, it’s not clear to me that it should be. Do you mind elaborating on why you think it should be?
Also, I think this only really starts to change the conclusions we draw when the discounting is significant, eg. a post-singularity year going from $100k to $10k rather than $100k to $90k. It sounds like you are saying it should be significant. Is that true? Why is that?