The links you posted do not work for me. (Nevermind)
Wow, you are really confident in you winning. There are 10 players in the clique, so even if there are no players outside the clique (a dubious assumption) a priori there is 10% chance. If I had money I would bet with you.
I also think there is a good chance that a CloneBot wins. 10 possible member is a good number imo. i would say 80%.
I would say 70% for the (possibly accidental) betrayal.
Without seeing your jailbreak.py I can’t say how likely that others are able to simulate you.
Conditioned on “any CloneBot wins” I’ve given myself about 25%.
10% in that conditional would definitely be too low—I think I have above-baseline chances on all of “successfully submit a bot”, “bot is a CloneBot” and “don’t get disqualified”. I think I expect at least three to fall to those hurdles, and five wouldn’t surprise me. And of the rest, I still don’t necessarily expect most of them to be very serious attempts.
By “act out” I mean it’s a bot that’s recognized as a CloneBot by the others but doesn’t act like one—most likely cooperating with non-clones, but not-cooperating with clones would also count, it would just be silly as far as I can tell. I also include such a bot as a CloneBot for the 75%.
Updated with a link to my code. I also put yours in to see how we’d fare against each other one-on-one—from quick experimentation, looks like we both get close to 2.5 points/turn, but I exploit you for approximately one point every few hundred turns, leaving me the eventual victor. :D I haven’t looked closely to see where that comes from.
Of course too much depends on what other bots are around.
The links you posted do not work for me.(Nevermind)Wow, you are really confident in you winning. There are 10 players in the clique, so even if there are no players outside the clique (a dubious assumption) a priori there is 10% chance. If I had money I would bet with you.
I also think there is a good chance that a CloneBot wins. 10 possible member is a good number imo. i would say 80%.
I would say 70% for the (possibly accidental) betrayal.
Without seeing your jailbreak.py I can’t say how likely that others are able to simulate you.
What does “act out” mean in this context?
Conditioned on “any CloneBot wins” I’ve given myself about 25%.
10% in that conditional would definitely be too low—I think I have above-baseline chances on all of “successfully submit a bot”, “bot is a CloneBot” and “don’t get disqualified”. I think I expect at least three to fall to those hurdles, and five wouldn’t surprise me. And of the rest, I still don’t necessarily expect most of them to be very serious attempts.
By “act out” I mean it’s a bot that’s recognized as a CloneBot by the others but doesn’t act like one—most likely cooperating with non-clones, but not-cooperating with clones would also count, it would just be silly as far as I can tell. I also include such a bot as a CloneBot for the 75%.
Updated with a link to my code. I also put yours in to see how we’d fare against each other one-on-one—from quick experimentation, looks like we both get close to 2.5 points/turn, but I exploit you for approximately one point every few hundred turns, leaving me the eventual victor. :D I haven’t looked closely to see where that comes from.
Of course too much depends on what other bots are around.