Conditioned on “any CloneBot wins” I’ve given myself about 25%.
10% in that conditional would definitely be too low—I think I have above-baseline chances on all of “successfully submit a bot”, “bot is a CloneBot” and “don’t get disqualified”. I think I expect at least three to fall to those hurdles, and five wouldn’t surprise me. And of the rest, I still don’t necessarily expect most of them to be very serious attempts.
By “act out” I mean it’s a bot that’s recognized as a CloneBot by the others but doesn’t act like one—most likely cooperating with non-clones, but not-cooperating with clones would also count, it would just be silly as far as I can tell. I also include such a bot as a CloneBot for the 75%.
Conditioned on “any CloneBot wins” I’ve given myself about 25%.
10% in that conditional would definitely be too low—I think I have above-baseline chances on all of “successfully submit a bot”, “bot is a CloneBot” and “don’t get disqualified”. I think I expect at least three to fall to those hurdles, and five wouldn’t surprise me. And of the rest, I still don’t necessarily expect most of them to be very serious attempts.
By “act out” I mean it’s a bot that’s recognized as a CloneBot by the others but doesn’t act like one—most likely cooperating with non-clones, but not-cooperating with clones would also count, it would just be silly as far as I can tell. I also include such a bot as a CloneBot for the 75%.