On (a) and (b), we describe this at a high level here.
We don’t really have anything written on (c) or (d). (c) really depends a lot on effort, so I’d probably prefer to talk mostly about (d) including what evalutions would be needed at various points etc.
For (a), I think we potentially care about all of:
Systems which are perhaps qualitatively similarly smart to OK software engineers and which are capable of speeding up R&D work by 10x (speedups aren’t higher due to human bottlenecks). (On a nearcast, we’d expect such systems to be very broadly knowledgeable, pretty fast, and very well tuned for many of their usages.)
Systems which nearly strictly dominate top human scientists on capability and which are perhaps similar in qualitative intelligence (I’d guess notably, but not wildly weaker and compensating in various ways.) Such systems likely some domains/properties in which they are much better than any human or nearly any human.
Systems which are qualitatively smarter than any human by a small amount.
It’s likely control is breaking down by (3) unless control ends up being quite easy or the implementation/evaluation is very good.
On (b) we plan on talking more about this soon. (Buck’s recent EAGx talk is pretty up to date with our current thinking, though this talk is obviously not that detailed. IDK if you can find a recording anywhere.)
On (a) and (b), we describe this at a high level here.
We don’t really have anything written on (c) or (d). (c) really depends a lot on effort, so I’d probably prefer to talk mostly about (d) including what evalutions would be needed at various points etc.
For (a), I think we potentially care about all of:
Systems which are perhaps qualitatively similarly smart to OK software engineers and which are capable of speeding up R&D work by 10x (speedups aren’t higher due to human bottlenecks). (On a nearcast, we’d expect such systems to be very broadly knowledgeable, pretty fast, and very well tuned for many of their usages.)
Systems which nearly strictly dominate top human scientists on capability and which are perhaps similar in qualitative intelligence (I’d guess notably, but not wildly weaker and compensating in various ways.) Such systems likely some domains/properties in which they are much better than any human or nearly any human.
Systems which are qualitatively smarter than any human by a small amount.
It’s likely control is breaking down by (3) unless control ends up being quite easy or the implementation/evaluation is very good.
On (b) we plan on talking more about this soon. (Buck’s recent EAGx talk is pretty up to date with our current thinking, though this talk is obviously not that detailed. IDK if you can find a recording anywhere.)