My impression is that the growth rate is pretty underwhelming. But I don’t have hard data on the growth rate and this would totally change my mind if e.g. the population of self-driving cars was 10xing every year, or even doubling. (Currently it’s like, what, 500? And they only operate during certain hours in certain geofenced locations?)
Oh shit! So, seems like my million rides per day metric will be reached sometime in 2025? That is indeed somewhat faster than I expected. Updating, updating...
I know for Cruise they’re operating ~300 vehicles here in SF (I was previously under the impression this was a hard cap by law until the approval a few days ago but no longer sure of this). The geofence and hours vary by user but my understanding is the highest tier of users (maybe just employees?) have access to Cruise 24⁄7 with a geofence encompassing almost all of SF, and then there are lower tiers of users with various restrictions like tighter geofences and 9pm-5:30am hours. I don’t know what their growth plans look like now that they’ve been granted permission to expand.
OK, thanks. I’ll be curious to see how fast they grow. I guess I should admit that it does seem like ants are driving cars fairly well these days, so to speak. Any ideas on what tasks could be necessary for AI R&D automation, that are a lot harder than driving cars? So far I’ve got things like ‘coming up with new paradigms’ and ‘having good research taste for what experiments to run.’ That and long-horizon agency, though long-horizon agency doesn’t seem super necessary.
My impression is that the growth rate is pretty underwhelming. But I don’t have hard data on the growth rate and this would totally change my mind if e.g. the population of self-driving cars was 10xing every year, or even doubling. (Currently it’s like, what, 500? And they only operate during certain hours in certain geofenced locations?)
Here is some data through Matthew Barnett and Jess Riedl
Number of cumulative miles driven by Cruise’s autonomous cars is growing as an exponential at roughly 1 OOM per year.
https://twitter.com/MatthewJBar/status/1690102362394992640
Oh shit! So, seems like my million rides per day metric will be reached sometime in 2025? That is indeed somewhat faster than I expected. Updating, updating...
Thanks!
I know for Cruise they’re operating ~300 vehicles here in SF (I was previously under the impression this was a hard cap by law until the approval a few days ago but no longer sure of this). The geofence and hours vary by user but my understanding is the highest tier of users (maybe just employees?) have access to Cruise 24⁄7 with a geofence encompassing almost all of SF, and then there are lower tiers of users with various restrictions like tighter geofences and 9pm-5:30am hours. I don’t know what their growth plans look like now that they’ve been granted permission to expand.
OK, thanks. I’ll be curious to see how fast they grow. I guess I should admit that it does seem like ants are driving cars fairly well these days, so to speak. Any ideas on what tasks could be necessary for AI R&D automation, that are a lot harder than driving cars? So far I’ve got things like ‘coming up with new paradigms’ and ‘having good research taste for what experiments to run.’ That and long-horizon agency, though long-horizon agency doesn’t seem super necessary.