According to data that I grabbed from Cruise, my (admittedly wildly speculative) projection of their growth reveals that driverless cars may become near-ubiquitous by the end of 2027. More specifically, my extrapolation is for the cumulative number of miles driven by Cruise cars by the the end of 2027 to approach one trillion, which can be compared to the roughly 3 trillion miles driven per year by US drivers. Now obviously, we might get AGI before that happens. And maybe (indeed it’s likely) that Cruise’s growth will slow down at some point before they hit the trillion mile mark. Nonetheless, it seems that if current trends hold, we might get driverless cars almost everywhere in the US in the near-term future. As for whether that milestone comes before AGI, I think that may depend heavily on your definition of AGI.
G.M. has spent an average of $588 million a quarter on Cruise over the past year, a 42 percent increase from a year ago. Each Chevrolet Bolt that Cruise operates costs $150,000 to $200,000, according to a person familiar with its operations.
Half of Cruise’s 400 cars were in San Francisco when the driverless operations were stopped. Those vehicles were supported by a vast operations staff, with 1.5 workers per vehicle. The workers intervened to assist the company’s vehicles every 2.5 to 5 miles, according to two people familiar with is operations. In other words, they frequently had to do something to remotely control a car after receiving a cellular signal that it was having problems.
If these numbers are accurate, it seems my original take was correct after all. 2.5 to 5 miles per intervention is significantly worse than Tesla IIRC. And 1.5 employees per car, remotely operating the vehicle when it gets into trouble, is not robotaxi material.
According to data that I grabbed from Cruise, my (admittedly wildly speculative) projection of their growth reveals that driverless cars may become near-ubiquitous by the end of 2027. More specifically, my extrapolation is for the cumulative number of miles driven by Cruise cars by the the end of 2027 to approach one trillion, which can be compared to the roughly 3 trillion miles driven per year by US drivers. Now obviously, we might get AGI before that happens. And maybe (indeed it’s likely) that Cruise’s growth will slow down at some point before they hit the trillion mile mark. Nonetheless, it seems that if current trends hold, we might get driverless cars almost everywhere in the US in the near-term future. As for whether that milestone comes before AGI, I think that may depend heavily on your definition of AGI.
Awesome. I must admit I wasn’t aware of this trend & it’s an update for me. Hooray! Robotaxis are easier than I thought! Thanks.
Update:
It’s behind a paywall so I can’t verify but I’m told this is a quote from Cruise Grew Fast and Angered Regulators. Now It’s Dealing With the Fallout. - The New York Times (nytimes.com)
If these numbers are accurate, it seems my original take was correct after all. 2.5 to 5 miles per intervention is significantly worse than Tesla IIRC. And 1.5 employees per car, remotely operating the vehicle when it gets into trouble, is not robotaxi material.
An update: Cruise has been suspended by the California DMV.
That’s unfortunate. Thankfully, this suspension is not a ban, but looks to be more of a temporary pause.