I’m fairly sure that the .3% was averaged across the 5% if people reporting long term symptoms. The vast majority will be mild, while a small fraction will really suck (I think, given the model of the post)
Actually, this is averaged over all 30yos who get COVID—I realize this was unclear as a summary, I’ll fix. So it’s equivalent to about .6% of them getting horrific CFS and losing half their life-equivalent. (Obv in reality you’re looking at a smooth distribution of badness).
I think this is reasonably supported by my own experience of seeing ~10 30yos getting COVID pre-vaccine and not having any CFS, and now we have 3x less risk with the vaccine.
I’m fairly sure that the .3% was averaged across the 5% if people reporting long term symptoms. The vast majority will be mild, while a small fraction will really suck (I think, given the model of the post)
Actually, this is averaged over all 30yos who get COVID—I realize this was unclear as a summary, I’ll fix. So it’s equivalent to about .6% of them getting horrific CFS and losing half their life-equivalent. (Obv in reality you’re looking at a smooth distribution of badness).
I think this is reasonably supported by my own experience of seeing ~10 30yos getting COVID pre-vaccine and not having any CFS, and now we have 3x less risk with the vaccine.