I would guess Long Covid then reduces a 30yo’s average productivity by on average .3%.
This seems like a vast underestimate of the impact of long covid; the long-term loss of energy that people with post viral fatigue suffer is way worse than that.
From Anne’s document:
I have Myalgic Encephalomyelitis / Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (ME/CFS). Many Long COVID sufferers have what seems to be ME/CFS. It’s a bad illness. You don’t want it. Nearly every day of my life since I’ve developed ME/CFS has been centered around trying to find some way to get better. I think people without ME/CFS undervalue how bad it is because it’s hard for them to fathom that anything this bad (yet non-fatal!) even exists.
The long-term post viral fatigue/CFS/ME outcome is probably more like a 50%-70% loss in productivity than the 0.3% estimated here; think of people giving up their career, losing relationships, giving up activities and social life due to a permanent illness, etc.
Outcomes this bad are probably less than 5% of cases, Anne threw around the 1⁄3 of long covid cases figure, but we don’t know at the moment.
I’m fairly sure that the .3% was averaged across the 5% if people reporting long term symptoms. The vast majority will be mild, while a small fraction will really suck (I think, given the model of the post)
Actually, this is averaged over all 30yos who get COVID—I realize this was unclear as a summary, I’ll fix. So it’s equivalent to about .6% of them getting horrific CFS and losing half their life-equivalent. (Obv in reality you’re looking at a smooth distribution of badness).
I think this is reasonably supported by my own experience of seeing ~10 30yos getting COVID pre-vaccine and not having any CFS, and now we have 3x less risk with the vaccine.
This seems like a vast underestimate of the impact of long covid; the long-term loss of energy that people with post viral fatigue suffer is way worse than that.
From Anne’s document:
The long-term post viral fatigue/CFS/ME outcome is probably more like a 50%-70% loss in productivity than the 0.3% estimated here; think of people giving up their career, losing relationships, giving up activities and social life due to a permanent illness, etc.
Outcomes this bad are probably less than 5% of cases, Anne threw around the 1⁄3 of long covid cases figure, but we don’t know at the moment.
I’m fairly sure that the .3% was averaged across the 5% if people reporting long term symptoms. The vast majority will be mild, while a small fraction will really suck (I think, given the model of the post)
Actually, this is averaged over all 30yos who get COVID—I realize this was unclear as a summary, I’ll fix. So it’s equivalent to about .6% of them getting horrific CFS and losing half their life-equivalent. (Obv in reality you’re looking at a smooth distribution of badness).
I think this is reasonably supported by my own experience of seeing ~10 30yos getting COVID pre-vaccine and not having any CFS, and now we have 3x less risk with the vaccine.