Ultimately, I think what this question boils down to is whether to expect “a sample” or “a sample within which we live” (i.e. whether or not the anthropic argument applies). Under MWI, anthropics would be quite likely to hold. On the other hand, if there is only a single world, it would be quite unlikely to hold (as you not living is a possible outcome, whether you could observe it or not). In the former case, we’ve received no evidence that MAD works. In the latter, however, we have received such evidence.
I don’t see what your reasoning is (and I find “anthropics would hold” to be ambiguous). Can you explain?
Suppose half the worlds adopt a strategy that is certain to avoid war, and half adopt one the has a 50% chance. Of the worlds without war, 2⁄3 have adopted a strategy that is certain to avoid war. Therefore, anyone in a world without war should have their confidence that they are in a world that has adopted a strategy that is certain to avoid war go from ½ to 2⁄3 upon seeing war fail to develop.
Ultimately, I think what this question boils down to is whether to expect “a sample” or “a sample within which we live” (i.e. whether or not the anthropic argument applies). Under MWI, anthropics would be quite likely to hold. On the other hand, if there is only a single world, it would be quite unlikely to hold (as you not living is a possible outcome, whether you could observe it or not). In the former case, we’ve received no evidence that MAD works. In the latter, however, we have received such evidence.
That is an excellent username. Welcome to LessWrong.
I don’t see what your reasoning is (and I find “anthropics would hold” to be ambiguous). Can you explain?
Suppose half the worlds adopt a strategy that is certain to avoid war, and half adopt one the has a 50% chance. Of the worlds without war, 2⁄3 have adopted a strategy that is certain to avoid war. Therefore, anyone in a world without war should have their confidence that they are in a world that has adopted a strategy that is certain to avoid war go from ½ to 2⁄3 upon seeing war fail to develop.