I don’t see what your reasoning is (and I find “anthropics would hold” to be ambiguous). Can you explain?
Suppose half the worlds adopt a strategy that is certain to avoid war, and half adopt one the has a 50% chance. Of the worlds without war, 2⁄3 have adopted a strategy that is certain to avoid war. Therefore, anyone in a world without war should have their confidence that they are in a world that has adopted a strategy that is certain to avoid war go from ½ to 2⁄3 upon seeing war fail to develop.
I don’t see what your reasoning is (and I find “anthropics would hold” to be ambiguous). Can you explain?
Suppose half the worlds adopt a strategy that is certain to avoid war, and half adopt one the has a 50% chance. Of the worlds without war, 2⁄3 have adopted a strategy that is certain to avoid war. Therefore, anyone in a world without war should have their confidence that they are in a world that has adopted a strategy that is certain to avoid war go from ½ to 2⁄3 upon seeing war fail to develop.