I had. Somehow I read it as someone who Vitalik motivated to do this, rather than Vitalik himself, presumably Vitalik doesn’t care about 50k but it makes sense he’d care in theory anyway.
My takeaway was that there’s a lot of things to be nervous about when betting even on an event that already happened, and that this was a pure supply-and-demand issue where people who knew the election outcome still had to overcome several risks and make it all worth doing, and you wouldn’t do that in these ways for less than ~10-15% return minimum, and the other side had people who believed false things and were thus price insensitive.
If anything the failure to see more divergence in markets due to these issues is the thing that needs explaining.
If I’d had access to FTX I would have considered doing some of this trade, perhaps quite a lot in dollar terms if liquidity was there, but no way I’m going to get involved in several layers of smart contracts in order to collect this little of a payoff. I don’t trust it.
I had. Somehow I read it as someone who Vitalik motivated to do this, rather than Vitalik himself, presumably Vitalik doesn’t care about 50k but it makes sense he’d care in theory anyway.
My takeaway was that there’s a lot of things to be nervous about when betting even on an event that already happened, and that this was a pure supply-and-demand issue where people who knew the election outcome still had to overcome several risks and make it all worth doing, and you wouldn’t do that in these ways for less than ~10-15% return minimum, and the other side had people who believed false things and were thus price insensitive.
If anything the failure to see more divergence in markets due to these issues is the thing that needs explaining.
If I’d had access to FTX I would have considered doing some of this trade, perhaps quite a lot in dollar terms if liquidity was there, but no way I’m going to get involved in several layers of smart contracts in order to collect this little of a payoff. I don’t trust it.