I hope that Metaculus will introduce the option of having questions that have multiple outcomes that one can predict in correlated ways. Perhaps by setting up a latent variable model.
They have a Patreon where they receive money and suggestions. I signed up to give them money there and suggested they introduce support for latent variable models. They seemed interested. I don’t know what’s going on behind the scenes, but I assume if anyone else also thinks it’s worthwhile, it would help them if you gave them a bunch of money and asked them to use it for latent variable models.
I hope that Metaculus will introduce the option of having questions that have multiple outcomes that one can predict in correlated ways. Perhaps by setting up a latent variable model.
They have a Patreon where they receive money and suggestions. I signed up to give them money there and suggested they introduce support for latent variable models. They seemed interested. I don’t know what’s going on behind the scenes, but I assume if anyone else also thinks it’s worthwhile, it would help them if you gave them a bunch of money and asked them to use it for latent variable models.