I propose that the motivation for all of these projects is not to find the answer, but rather to build the intuitions of the project members. If you were to compare the effects on intuition of reading research vs. performing research, I strongly expect that performing research would be greater.
Because of this, I expect that a significant chunk of all the people who are working in any capacity on the AI risk problem will take a direct shot at similar projects themselves, even if they don’t write it up. I would also be surprised to find an org without any such people in it.
I propose that the motivation for all of these projects is not to find the answer, but rather to build the intuitions of the project members. If you were to compare the effects on intuition of reading research vs. performing research, I strongly expect that performing research would be greater.
Because of this, I expect that a significant chunk of all the people who are working in any capacity on the AI risk problem will take a direct shot at similar projects themselves, even if they don’t write it up. I would also be surprised to find an org without any such people in it.