Same. Aging is bad, don’t expect it to be solved (escape velocity reached) in my lifetime.
I also agree that nearish AGI excites and whether deemed good (I’d welcome it, bet worth taking, though scary) or doom, far AGI is relatively boring, and that may psychologically contribute to people holding shorter timelines.
Third “fact” at the top of the original post “We’ve made enormous progress towards solving intelligence in the last few years” is somewhat refuted by the rest: if it’s a math-like problem, we don’t know how much progress toward AGI we’ve made in the last few years. (I don’t know enough to hold a strong opinion on this, but I hope we have! Increase variance, the animal-human experience to date is disgustingly miserable, brutal, and stupid, do better or die trying.)
Third “fact” at the top of the original post “We’ve made enormous progress towards solving intelligence in the last few years” is somewhat refuted by the rest: if it’s a math-like problem, we don’t know how much progress toward AGI we’ve made in the last few years.
Yeah, it crossed my mind that that phrasing might be a bit confusing. I just meant that
It’s a lot of progress in an absolute sense, and
It’s progress in the direction of AGI.
But I believe AGI is so far away that it still requires a lot more progress.
Same. Aging is bad, don’t expect it to be solved (escape velocity reached) in my lifetime.
I also agree that nearish AGI excites and whether deemed good (I’d welcome it, bet worth taking, though scary) or doom, far AGI is relatively boring, and that may psychologically contribute to people holding shorter timelines.
Third “fact” at the top of the original post “We’ve made enormous progress towards solving intelligence in the last few years” is somewhat refuted by the rest: if it’s a math-like problem, we don’t know how much progress toward AGI we’ve made in the last few years. (I don’t know enough to hold a strong opinion on this, but I hope we have! Increase variance, the animal-human experience to date is disgustingly miserable, brutal, and stupid, do better or die trying.)
Yeah, it crossed my mind that that phrasing might be a bit confusing. I just meant that
It’s a lot of progress in an absolute sense, and
It’s progress in the direction of AGI.
But I believe AGI is so far away that it still requires a lot more progress.