I think aging is very bad[1] but don’t expect it to be a solved problem any time in or near my lifetime. (I’m in my early 50s, so that lifetime is likely shorter than that of most other people around here, but I think it’s pretty unlikely to be solved in say the next 50 years.)
[1] I’m not so sure that very finite lifetimes are very bad, given other difficult-to-overcome constraints the human race is working under. I can imagine possible future worlds where (post-)humans typically live 1000 years and almost all deaths are voluntary, but those future worlds need a lot of other problems solved some of which are probably harder than aging.
Same. Aging is bad, don’t expect it to be solved (escape velocity reached) in my lifetime.
I also agree that nearish AGI excites and whether deemed good (I’d welcome it, bet worth taking, though scary) or doom, far AGI is relatively boring, and that may psychologically contribute to people holding shorter timelines.
Third “fact” at the top of the original post “We’ve made enormous progress towards solving intelligence in the last few years” is somewhat refuted by the rest: if it’s a math-like problem, we don’t know how much progress toward AGI we’ve made in the last few years. (I don’t know enough to hold a strong opinion on this, but I hope we have! Increase variance, the animal-human experience to date is disgustingly miserable, brutal, and stupid, do better or die trying.)
Third “fact” at the top of the original post “We’ve made enormous progress towards solving intelligence in the last few years” is somewhat refuted by the rest: if it’s a math-like problem, we don’t know how much progress toward AGI we’ve made in the last few years.
Yeah, it crossed my mind that that phrasing might be a bit confusing. I just meant that
It’s a lot of progress in an absolute sense, and
It’s progress in the direction of AGI.
But I believe AGI is so far away that it still requires a lot more progress.
(raises hand)
I think aging is very bad[1] but don’t expect it to be a solved problem any time in or near my lifetime. (I’m in my early 50s, so that lifetime is likely shorter than that of most other people around here, but I think it’s pretty unlikely to be solved in say the next 50 years.)
[1] I’m not so sure that very finite lifetimes are very bad, given other difficult-to-overcome constraints the human race is working under. I can imagine possible future worlds where (post-)humans typically live 1000 years and almost all deaths are voluntary, but those future worlds need a lot of other problems solved some of which are probably harder than aging.
Same. Aging is bad, don’t expect it to be solved (escape velocity reached) in my lifetime.
I also agree that nearish AGI excites and whether deemed good (I’d welcome it, bet worth taking, though scary) or doom, far AGI is relatively boring, and that may psychologically contribute to people holding shorter timelines.
Third “fact” at the top of the original post “We’ve made enormous progress towards solving intelligence in the last few years” is somewhat refuted by the rest: if it’s a math-like problem, we don’t know how much progress toward AGI we’ve made in the last few years. (I don’t know enough to hold a strong opinion on this, but I hope we have! Increase variance, the animal-human experience to date is disgustingly miserable, brutal, and stupid, do better or die trying.)
Yeah, it crossed my mind that that phrasing might be a bit confusing. I just meant that
It’s a lot of progress in an absolute sense, and
It’s progress in the direction of AGI.
But I believe AGI is so far away that it still requires a lot more progress.
I also believe that aging is very bad, and given no AGI and no genetic engineering for intelligence I’d expect70% no solution for it to happen.