Without sufficient clarity, which humanity doesn’t possess on this topic, no amount of somewhat confused arguments is sufficient for the kind of certainty that makes the remaining risk of extinction not worth worrying about. It’s important to understand and develop what arguments we have, but in their present state they are not suitable for arguing this particular case outside their own assumption-laden frames.
When reunited with unknown unknowns outside their natural frames, such arguments might plausibly make it reasonable to believe the risk of extinction is as low as 10%, or as high as 90%, but nothing more extreme than that. Nowhere across this whole range of epistemic possibilities is a situation that we “mostly don’t need to worry about”.
Without sufficient clarity, which humanity doesn’t possess on this topic, no amount of somewhat confused arguments is sufficient for the kind of certainty that makes the remaining risk of extinction not worth worrying about. It’s important to understand and develop what arguments we have, but in their present state they are not suitable for arguing this particular case outside their own assumption-laden frames.
When reunited with unknown unknowns outside their natural frames, such arguments might plausibly make it reasonable to believe the risk of extinction is as low as 10%, or as high as 90%, but nothing more extreme than that. Nowhere across this whole range of epistemic possibilities is a situation that we “mostly don’t need to worry about”.