This post triggered me a bit, so I ended up writing one of my own.
I agree the entire thing is about how to subsidise the markets, but I think you’re overestimating how good markets are as a mechanism for subsidising forecasting (in general). Specifically for your examples:
Direct subsidies are expensive relative to the alternatives (the point of my post)
Hedging doesn’t apply in lots of markets, and in the ones where it does make sense those markets already exist. (Eg insurance)
New traders is a terrible idea as you say. It will work in some niches (eg where there’s lots of organic interest, but it wont work at scale for important things)
This post triggered me a bit, so I ended up writing one of my own.
I agree the entire thing is about how to subsidise the markets, but I think you’re overestimating how good markets are as a mechanism for subsidising forecasting (in general). Specifically for your examples:
Direct subsidies are expensive relative to the alternatives (the point of my post)
Hedging doesn’t apply in lots of markets, and in the ones where it does make sense those markets already exist. (Eg insurance)
New traders is a terrible idea as you say. It will work in some niches (eg where there’s lots of organic interest, but it wont work at scale for important things)