I find it odd that Harry made no attempt to contact Lucius, or that that attempt failed, before the trial. Your list is also missing Cornelius Fudge.
The first thing that came to mind was declaring that Dumbledore killed Narcissa, but he doesn’t have any evidence for that besides Draco’s testimony, which is already fourth-hand.
It is worthwhile to note that Harry is a member of a Noble House too, and so there may be some obligation of Draco to him (remember that time Draco ‘tried to kill him’ by dropping him off the roof, and he actually was in danger because of the mob of girls?) or Hermione to him (can’t think of one there, though). But those don’t seem like things that he could easily pull out in the Wizengamot after a vote has been called.
I think the most likely outcome is that Harry does not, in fact, think of something. Hermione is sent to Azkaban, Draco is now his enemy, and Quirrel wins.
I think the most likely outcome is that Harry does not, in fact, think of something. Hermione is sent to Azkaban, Draco is now his enemy, and Quirrel wins.
If this were the case, then good serial pacing would be to put that at the end of this installment, to leave on a clear down-note.
Leaving it on a cliff-hanger promises some answer to the last question. By the text, it looks like that question is, “How will I save Hermione?” not, “Can I save Hermione?”
A central part of Eliezer’s worldview is that it is possible to lose, and lose big. An Al-Ghazali can come along and destroy the bright future of your society. A UFAI can destroy the bright future of your society. A Quirrel can destroy the bright future of Harry Potter.
If the fic is coming to an end soon, which I think has been implied, Harry’s implosion and Quirrel’s victory are a good place to end things.
(I should clarify that, by “most likely outcome,” I mean “more likely than any other specific outcome,” not “more likely than its complement.” I think there’s more than half chance that Harry will think of something, and I think ArisKatsaris has proposed the most likely way Harry will get out of this, but still think it’s somewhat more likely Harry will fail than win that way.
Chapter breaks are a meta-aspect not in the story itself. If it were a continual story this might make sense. Dramatic pacing of the story elements with a bad ending wouldn’t be an in universe lesson but an out of universe lesson. Also, I suspect that Eliezer is smart enough to realize that having a downer ending would likely turn off a lot of people to rationality who might otherwise be take some interest in it simply from the halo effect. Having a downer ending would substantially undermine that.
I didn’t read the wikipedia article fully, and so didn’t notice that it only hinted at the primary reason he was important.
The Islamic Golden Age, from ~750 to ~1250, was the period where Islam was the intellectual center of the world. Many Greek texts only survived because they had been preserved by Muslims and/or translated into Arabic, and scholars living in Muslim lands (Muslims, Christians, Jews, and atheists) were at the forefront of science, mathematics, and philosophy. Baghdad was the commercial and intellectual center of the world. Francis Bacon may have formalized the scientific method, but the main advance in empiricism before him came from al-Haytham, six hundred years earlier.
Al-Ghazali was an influential thinker who said that the Greek philosophers were ignorant infidels and that science and mathematics were dangerous because they could lead to loss of faith.
Ibn Rushd, famously depicted in the School of Athens, argued against Al-Ghazali- that the Greeks made valuable contributions, that science and mathematics were valuable. He was too little, too late; Muslim opinion swung Al-Ghazali’s way, though a few Europeans took Ibn Rushd’s arguments seriously, like Thomas Aquinas (who was also heavily influenced by Al-Ghazali, but agreed with Ibn Rushd’s conclusions).
Al-Ghazali, essentially, was the intellectual standard-bearer for the movement to replace openness and inquiry with closedness and faith in the Muslim world. He can’t be entirely blamed for the collapse of the Islamic Golden Age, as both the barbarous Christians and Mongols were beating on the doors, but that Islam never really recovered as an intellectual force appears to be centered around him.
(Neil de Grasse Tyson tells this story here (3:24), though he simplifies it somewhat.)
Is there a book you’d recommend on the thinkers of Al-Ghazali’s time? The only one that came up for me in a quick Google on his name was a screed with all the hallmarks of cherry-picking history to support a point of view about present-day politics.
And yet, he did an entire arc about the role of a hero and supporting characters. I don’t think we can be sure that his decisions won’t be influenced by story concerns.
Of course his decisions are influenced by story concerns: the way to make the point “this is not a story” is to do it in a sickening matter. Let people pattern-match on “this is the bleak moment where Harry will do the impossible and win,” and then reveal that the impossible is, in fact, impossible.
(Note there is a problem with the “you have five days to come up with a solution” approach if EY has taken this plan- EY would have to be pretty confident that no plan existed to hope that fans would not come up with one.)
I am aware. My point is that if you say “X is impossible” and then someone points out a way to do X, you now have a plot hole / have to admit that the fan is cleverer than the character or author. That’s genre savvy evidence against the prediction that EY will say “X is impossible,” whereas “he would end the chapter on a downer” isn’t because he would get the desired effect more strongly if he ended the chapter on a cliffhanger, and then had the character fall off the cliff.
Destroys the dementors by destroying himself? Destroys the dementors, and lets out the criminals of wizarding Britain? Destroys the dementors, and is put down for rebellion?
I find it odd that Harry made no attempt to contact Lucius, or that that attempt failed, before the trial. Your list is also missing Cornelius Fudge.
The first thing that came to mind was declaring that Dumbledore killed Narcissa, but he doesn’t have any evidence for that besides Draco’s testimony, which is already fourth-hand.
It is worthwhile to note that Harry is a member of a Noble House too, and so there may be some obligation of Draco to him (remember that time Draco ‘tried to kill him’ by dropping him off the roof, and he actually was in danger because of the mob of girls?) or Hermione to him (can’t think of one there, though). But those don’t seem like things that he could easily pull out in the Wizengamot after a vote has been called.
I think the most likely outcome is that Harry does not, in fact, think of something. Hermione is sent to Azkaban, Draco is now his enemy, and Quirrel wins.
If this were the case, then good serial pacing would be to put that at the end of this installment, to leave on a clear down-note.
Leaving it on a cliff-hanger promises some answer to the last question. By the text, it looks like that question is, “How will I save Hermione?” not, “Can I save Hermione?”
Reality does not have to obey dramatic pacing.
A central part of Eliezer’s worldview is that it is possible to lose, and lose big. An Al-Ghazali can come along and destroy the bright future of your society. A UFAI can destroy the bright future of your society. A Quirrel can destroy the bright future of Harry Potter.
If the fic is coming to an end soon, which I think has been implied, Harry’s implosion and Quirrel’s victory are a good place to end things.
(I should clarify that, by “most likely outcome,” I mean “more likely than any other specific outcome,” not “more likely than its complement.” I think there’s more than half chance that Harry will think of something, and I think ArisKatsaris has proposed the most likely way Harry will get out of this, but still think it’s somewhat more likely Harry will fail than win that way.
Chapter breaks are a meta-aspect not in the story itself. If it were a continual story this might make sense. Dramatic pacing of the story elements with a bad ending wouldn’t be an in universe lesson but an out of universe lesson. Also, I suspect that Eliezer is smart enough to realize that having a downer ending would likely turn off a lot of people to rationality who might otherwise be take some interest in it simply from the halo effect. Having a downer ending would substantially undermine that.
What did Al-Ghazali do, exactly? Wikipedia isn’t illuminating.
I didn’t read the wikipedia article fully, and so didn’t notice that it only hinted at the primary reason he was important.
The Islamic Golden Age, from ~750 to ~1250, was the period where Islam was the intellectual center of the world. Many Greek texts only survived because they had been preserved by Muslims and/or translated into Arabic, and scholars living in Muslim lands (Muslims, Christians, Jews, and atheists) were at the forefront of science, mathematics, and philosophy. Baghdad was the commercial and intellectual center of the world. Francis Bacon may have formalized the scientific method, but the main advance in empiricism before him came from al-Haytham, six hundred years earlier.
Al-Ghazali was an influential thinker who said that the Greek philosophers were ignorant infidels and that science and mathematics were dangerous because they could lead to loss of faith.
Ibn Rushd, famously depicted in the School of Athens, argued against Al-Ghazali- that the Greeks made valuable contributions, that science and mathematics were valuable. He was too little, too late; Muslim opinion swung Al-Ghazali’s way, though a few Europeans took Ibn Rushd’s arguments seriously, like Thomas Aquinas (who was also heavily influenced by Al-Ghazali, but agreed with Ibn Rushd’s conclusions).
Al-Ghazali, essentially, was the intellectual standard-bearer for the movement to replace openness and inquiry with closedness and faith in the Muslim world. He can’t be entirely blamed for the collapse of the Islamic Golden Age, as both the barbarous Christians and Mongols were beating on the doors, but that Islam never really recovered as an intellectual force appears to be centered around him.
(Neil de Grasse Tyson tells this story here (3:24), though he simplifies it somewhat.)
Is there a book you’d recommend on the thinkers of Al-Ghazali’s time? The only one that came up for me in a quick Google on his name was a screed with all the hallmarks of cherry-picking history to support a point of view about present-day politics.
I am not an expert in Islamic philosophy, but if I come across such a book I’ll point it your way.
And yet, he did an entire arc about the role of a hero and supporting characters. I don’t think we can be sure that his decisions won’t be influenced by story concerns.
Of course his decisions are influenced by story concerns: the way to make the point “this is not a story” is to do it in a sickening matter. Let people pattern-match on “this is the bleak moment where Harry will do the impossible and win,” and then reveal that the impossible is, in fact, impossible.
(Note there is a problem with the “you have five days to come up with a solution” approach if EY has taken this plan- EY would have to be pretty confident that no plan existed to hope that fans would not come up with one.)
Read above. There is a True End planned and pre-written.
I am aware. My point is that if you say “X is impossible” and then someone points out a way to do X, you now have a plot hole / have to admit that the fan is cleverer than the character or author. That’s genre savvy evidence against the prediction that EY will say “X is impossible,” whereas “he would end the chapter on a downer” isn’t because he would get the desired effect more strongly if he ended the chapter on a cliffhanger, and then had the character fall off the cliff.
This would be interesting. And then, Harry goes there in the next hour, destroy all the dementors and save Herminone.
A happy ending.
Destroys the dementors by destroying himself? Destroys the dementors, and lets out the criminals of wizarding Britain? Destroys the dementors, and is put down for rebellion?
There are no happy endings down that path.