According to electionbettingodds.com, this morning, Trump president 2024 contracts went up from about 0.18 to 0.31 on FTX but not elsewhere. Not sure what’s going on there or if people can make money on it.
There’s still a big gap between Betfair/Smarkets (22% chance Trump president) and Predictit/FTX (29-30%). I assume it’s not the kind of thing that can be just arbitraged away.
According to electionbettingodds.com, this morning, Trump president 2024 contracts went up from about 0.18 to 0.31 on FTX but not elsewhere. Not sure what’s going on there or if people can make money on it.
There’s still a big gap between Betfair/Smarkets (22% chance Trump president) and Predictit/FTX (29-30%). I assume it’s not the kind of thing that can be just arbitraged away.
Huh. I am curious to hear explanations if anyone has one.