Really, if the predictor mistake rate is indeed 1 in a trillion trillion then it’s much more probable that the note lies than that you are in this extremely rare circumstances where you pick the left envelope and the bomb is indeed there.
Likely true in practice, but this is a hypothetical example and FDT does not rely on that.
On the other hand, I’m not sure that FDT really recommends you to procreate in Procreation.
That scenario did seem underspecified to me too.
Also if you do not procreate and thus do not exist, how can you have an utility function valueing existence?
Hypothetically, you have a particular utility function/decision procedure—but some values of those might be incompatible with you actually existing.
Likely true in practice, but this is a hypothetical example and FDT does not rely on that.
That scenario did seem underspecified to me too.
Hypothetically, you have a particular utility function/decision procedure—but some values of those might be incompatible with you actually existing.