The Sarah Taber tweets on wheat seem logically flawed.
What matters, first, is how much total world production of wheat (and other food) will decline as a result of the war. Saying that exports of wheat from Ukraine are only 0.9% of world production, so they won’t be hard to replace, assumes that we don’t care whether the people in Ukraine starve. If, hypothetically, Ukraine produces no wheat at all as a result of war disruption, then their entire usual production will need to be replaced, not just their exports. Ukraine would need to import wheat, from somewhere.
Second, as she does discuss, there’s the matter of whether the wheat produced somewhere can get to the place it’s needed. Switching around how world wheat trade works may not be totally easy.
Third, there’s the disruption of fertilizer production and trade.
We’d better hope that the weather isn’t bad. Of course, we can also hope that peace descends on Ukraine soon, and agriculture gets back to normal.
But just in case, we’d be well advised to get rid of the ethanol scam.
I am definitely in the ‘worried about this’ camp in terms of third world impact. Alas, I see no sign we are even remotely considering things like getting rid of the ethanol requirement—also, my understanding is we would need California to waive its gas standards to actually get ethanol production to decline.
The Sarah Taber tweets on wheat seem logically flawed.
What matters, first, is how much total world production of wheat (and other food) will decline as a result of the war. Saying that exports of wheat from Ukraine are only 0.9% of world production, so they won’t be hard to replace, assumes that we don’t care whether the people in Ukraine starve. If, hypothetically, Ukraine produces no wheat at all as a result of war disruption, then their entire usual production will need to be replaced, not just their exports. Ukraine would need to import wheat, from somewhere.
Second, as she does discuss, there’s the matter of whether the wheat produced somewhere can get to the place it’s needed. Switching around how world wheat trade works may not be totally easy.
Third, there’s the disruption of fertilizer production and trade.
We’d better hope that the weather isn’t bad. Of course, we can also hope that peace descends on Ukraine soon, and agriculture gets back to normal.
But just in case, we’d be well advised to get rid of the ethanol scam.
I am definitely in the ‘worried about this’ camp in terms of third world impact. Alas, I see no sign we are even remotely considering things like getting rid of the ethanol requirement—also, my understanding is we would need California to waive its gas standards to actually get ethanol production to decline.