And the way it would fail would be if the simulations have an unavoidable error factor because real world physics is incomputable or a problem class above np (there’s posts here showing it is). The other way it would fail is if the simulations are missing information, for example in real battles between humanoid terminators the enemy might discover strategies the simulation didn’t model that are effective. So after deploying a lot of humanoid robots, rival terminators start winning the battles and it’s back to the design stage.
If you did it all in simulation I predict the robot would immediately fail and be unable to move. Humanoid robots are interdependent systems.
I am sure you know current protein folding algorithms are not accurate enough to actually use for protein engineering. You have to actually make the protein and test it along with the molecules you want binding logic for, and you will need to adjust your design. If the above is still true for ASI they will be unable to do protein engineering without a wet lab to build and test the parts for every step, where there will be hundreds of failures for every success.
If it does work that way then ASI will be faster than humans—since they can analyze more information at once and learn faster and conservatively try many routes in parallel—but not by the factors you imagine. Maybe 10 times faster not millions. This is because of Amdahls law.
The ASI are also cheaper. So it would be like a world where every technology in every field is being developed at the maximum speed humans could run at times 10.
(Theorizing about ASIs that have no access to physical reality feels noncentral in 2023 when GPT-4 has access to everything and everyone, and integration is only going to get stronger. But for the hypothetical ASI that grew out of an airgapped multimodal 1e29 LLM that has seen all youtube and read all papers and books and the web, I think ability to do good one shot engineering holds.)
(Also, we were discussing an exfiltrated AGI, for why else is RTX 2070 relevant, that happens to lack good latency to control robots. Presumably it doesn’t have the godshatter of technical knowledge, or else it doesn’t really matter that it’s a research-capable AGI. But it now has access to the physical world and can build prototypes. It can build another superintelligence. If it does have a bequest of ASI’s technical knowledge, it can just work to setup unsanctioned datacenters or a distributed network and run an OOMs-more-efficient-than-humanity’s-first-try superintelligence there.)
Predictability is vastly improved by developing the thing you need to predict yourself, especially when you intend to one shot it. Humans don’t do this, because for humans it happens to be much faster and cheaper to build prototypes, we are too slow at thinking useful thoughts. We possibly could succeed a lot more than observed in practice if each prototype was preceded by centuries of simulations and the prototypes were built with insane redundancies.
Simulations get better with data and with better learning algorithms. Looking at how a simulation works, it’s possible to spot issues and improve the simulation, including for the purpose of simulating a particular thing. Serial speed advantage more directly gives theory and general software from distant future (as opposed to engineering designs and experimental data). This includes theory and software for good learning algorithms, those that have much better sample efficiency and interrogate everything about the original 1e29 LLM to learn more of what its weights imply about the physical world. It’s a lot of data, who knows what details can be extracted from it from the position of theoretical and software-technological maturity.
None of this exists now though. Speculating about the future when it depends on all these unknowns and never before seen capabilities is dangerous—you’re virtually certain to be wrong. The uncertainty comes from all the moving parts in your model. Like you have:
Immense amounts of compute easily available
Accurate simulations of the world
Fully automated agi, there’s no humans helping at all, the model never gets stuck or just crashes from a bug in the lower framework
Enormously past human capabilities ASI. Not just a modest amount.
The reason you are probably wrong is just probability, if each step has a 50 percent chance of being right it’s 0.5^4. Dont think it of me saying you’re wrong.
And then only with all these pieces, humans are maybe doomed and will soon cease to exist. Therefore we should stop everything today.
While if just 1 piece is wrong, then this is the wrong choice to make. Right?
You’re also against a pro technology prior. Meaning I think you would have to actually prove the above—demo it—to convince people this the actual world we are in.
That’s because “future tech instead of turning out to be over hyped is going to be so amazing and perfect it can kill everyone quickly and easily” is against all the priors where tech turned out to be underwhelming and not that good. Like convincing someone the wolf is real when there’s been probably a million false alarms.
I don’t know how to think about this correctly. Like I feel like I should be weighting in the mountain of evidence I mentioned but if I do that then humans will always die to the ASI. Because there’s no warning. The whole threat model is that these are capabilities that are never seen prior to a certain point.
The whole threat model is that these are capabilities that are never seen prior to a certain point.
Yep, that’s how ChatGPT is a big deal for waking up policymakers, even as it’s not exactly relevant. I see two paths to a lasting pause. First, LLMs keep getting smarter and something object level scary happens before there are autonomous open weight AGIs, policymakers shut down big models. Second, 1e29 FLOPs is insufficient with LLMs, or LLMs stop getting smarter earlier and 1e29 FLOPs models are not attempted, and models at the scale that’s reached by then don’t get much smarter. It’s still unlikely that people won’t quickly find a way of using RL to extract more and more useful work out of the kind of data LLMs are trained on, but it doesn’t seem impossible that it might take a relatively long time.
Immense amounts of compute easily available
The other side to the argument for AGI in RTX 2070 is that the hardware that was sufficient to run humanity’s first attempt at AGI is sufficient to do much more than that when it’s employed efficiently.
Fully automated agi, there’s no humans helping at all, the model never gets stuck or just crashes from a bug in the lower framework
This is the argument’s assumption, the first AGI should be sufficiently close to this to fix the remaining limitations that make full autonomy reliable, including at research. Possibly requiring another long training run, if cracking online learning directly might take longer than that run.
Enormously past human capabilities ASI. Not just a modest amount.
I expect this, but this is not necessary for development of deep technological culture using serial speed advantage at very smart human level.
Accurate simulations of the world
This is more an expectation based on the rest than an assumption.
The reason you are probably wrong is just probability, if each step has a 50 percent chance of being right it’s 0.5^4.
These things are not independent.
Speculating about the future when it depends on all these unknowns and never before seen capabilities is dangerous—you’re virtually certain to be wrong.
That’s an argument about calibration. If you are doing the speculation correctly, not attempting to speculate is certain to leave a less accurate picture than doing it.
And the way it would fail would be if the simulations have an unavoidable error factor because real world physics is incomputable or a problem class above np (there’s posts here showing it is). The other way it would fail is if the simulations are missing information, for example in real battles between humanoid terminators the enemy might discover strategies the simulation didn’t model that are effective. So after deploying a lot of humanoid robots, rival terminators start winning the battles and it’s back to the design stage.
If you did it all in simulation I predict the robot would immediately fail and be unable to move. Humanoid robots are interdependent systems.
I am sure you know current protein folding algorithms are not accurate enough to actually use for protein engineering. You have to actually make the protein and test it along with the molecules you want binding logic for, and you will need to adjust your design. If the above is still true for ASI they will be unable to do protein engineering without a wet lab to build and test the parts for every step, where there will be hundreds of failures for every success.
If it does work that way then ASI will be faster than humans—since they can analyze more information at once and learn faster and conservatively try many routes in parallel—but not by the factors you imagine. Maybe 10 times faster not millions. This is because of Amdahls law.
The ASI are also cheaper. So it would be like a world where every technology in every field is being developed at the maximum speed humans could run at times 10.
(Theorizing about ASIs that have no access to physical reality feels noncentral in 2023 when GPT-4 has access to everything and everyone, and integration is only going to get stronger. But for the hypothetical ASI that grew out of an airgapped multimodal 1e29 LLM that has seen all youtube and read all papers and books and the web, I think ability to do good one shot engineering holds.)
(Also, we were discussing an exfiltrated AGI, for why else is RTX 2070 relevant, that happens to lack good latency to control robots. Presumably it doesn’t have the godshatter of technical knowledge, or else it doesn’t really matter that it’s a research-capable AGI. But it now has access to the physical world and can build prototypes. It can build another superintelligence. If it does have a bequest of ASI’s technical knowledge, it can just work to setup unsanctioned datacenters or a distributed network and run an OOMs-more-efficient-than-humanity’s-first-try superintelligence there.)
Predictability is vastly improved by developing the thing you need to predict yourself, especially when you intend to one shot it. Humans don’t do this, because for humans it happens to be much faster and cheaper to build prototypes, we are too slow at thinking useful thoughts. We possibly could succeed a lot more than observed in practice if each prototype was preceded by centuries of simulations and the prototypes were built with insane redundancies.
Simulations get better with data and with better learning algorithms. Looking at how a simulation works, it’s possible to spot issues and improve the simulation, including for the purpose of simulating a particular thing. Serial speed advantage more directly gives theory and general software from distant future (as opposed to engineering designs and experimental data). This includes theory and software for good learning algorithms, those that have much better sample efficiency and interrogate everything about the original 1e29 LLM to learn more of what its weights imply about the physical world. It’s a lot of data, who knows what details can be extracted from it from the position of theoretical and software-technological maturity.
None of this exists now though. Speculating about the future when it depends on all these unknowns and never before seen capabilities is dangerous—you’re virtually certain to be wrong. The uncertainty comes from all the moving parts in your model. Like you have:
Immense amounts of compute easily available
Accurate simulations of the world
Fully automated agi, there’s no humans helping at all, the model never gets stuck or just crashes from a bug in the lower framework
Enormously past human capabilities ASI. Not just a modest amount.
The reason you are probably wrong is just probability, if each step has a 50 percent chance of being right it’s 0.5^4. Dont think it of me saying you’re wrong.
And then only with all these pieces, humans are maybe doomed and will soon cease to exist. Therefore we should stop everything today.
While if just 1 piece is wrong, then this is the wrong choice to make. Right?
You’re also against a pro technology prior. Meaning I think you would have to actually prove the above—demo it—to convince people this the actual world we are in.
That’s because “future tech instead of turning out to be over hyped is going to be so amazing and perfect it can kill everyone quickly and easily” is against all the priors where tech turned out to be underwhelming and not that good. Like convincing someone the wolf is real when there’s been probably a million false alarms.
I don’t know how to think about this correctly. Like I feel like I should be weighting in the mountain of evidence I mentioned but if I do that then humans will always die to the ASI. Because there’s no warning. The whole threat model is that these are capabilities that are never seen prior to a certain point.
Yep, that’s how ChatGPT is a big deal for waking up policymakers, even as it’s not exactly relevant. I see two paths to a lasting pause. First, LLMs keep getting smarter and something object level scary happens before there are autonomous open weight AGIs, policymakers shut down big models. Second, 1e29 FLOPs is insufficient with LLMs, or LLMs stop getting smarter earlier and 1e29 FLOPs models are not attempted, and models at the scale that’s reached by then don’t get much smarter. It’s still unlikely that people won’t quickly find a way of using RL to extract more and more useful work out of the kind of data LLMs are trained on, but it doesn’t seem impossible that it might take a relatively long time.
The other side to the argument for AGI in RTX 2070 is that the hardware that was sufficient to run humanity’s first attempt at AGI is sufficient to do much more than that when it’s employed efficiently.
This is the argument’s assumption, the first AGI should be sufficiently close to this to fix the remaining limitations that make full autonomy reliable, including at research. Possibly requiring another long training run, if cracking online learning directly might take longer than that run.
I expect this, but this is not necessary for development of deep technological culture using serial speed advantage at very smart human level.
This is more an expectation based on the rest than an assumption.
These things are not independent.
That’s an argument about calibration. If you are doing the speculation correctly, not attempting to speculate is certain to leave a less accurate picture than doing it.
If you feel there are further issues to discuss, pm me for a dialogue.