Ruth Backlund, a co-president at the Skagit Valley Chorale, said the group was monitoring public health guidelines at the time of the practice and had asked people to stay home if they showed even minor signs of illness. The group gathered in rows facing a piano and a choir director. They were all in individual chairs and had space to keep separated. Ms. Backlund had made sure there were extra soap dispensers in the bathrooms for people to wash their hands.
“Nobody was sick. Nobody touched anybody. Nobody shook hands. Nobody hugged everybody like you might do in a group. There was none of that,” Ms. Backlund said.
Given that they were spaced out and 1 asymptomatic person probably infected all 45 out of 60 in what must be a reasonably large room, it seems just impractical to keep sufficient distance to be safe indoors.
Talking emits droplets and aerosols just like coughing does. In fact, I’m increasingly thinking that face-to-face conversations (especially without facemasks) are a major cause of asymptomatic transmissions. According to that theory, an indoor choir practice, with everyone singing loudly for extended periods, has to be one of the worst imaginable transmission risks. If the same type of super-spreader event happened in, say, a movie theater, I would be much more confused about it.
That makes sense, and does update me against public gatherings (but, I’m thinking of things on the timescale of a months to a year. I’m guessing it’ll get increasingly hard to keep people apart. I’m also thinking less in terms of groups of 60, and more more like groups of 2-5)
I was thinking of thresholds that were more like “at least 12 feet apart, maybe 20 feet”, with nobody touching any objects. (Also, I’m assuming this is all outdoors)
I was thinking of thresholds that were more like “at least 12 feet apart, maybe 20 feet”, with nobody touching any objects.
My point is that since 45 out of 60 people were infected and they were spaced out, the farthest person infected in that group must have been quite far from the source of the infection, and keeping a even longer distance to be safe is probably impractical for most indoor spaces.
ETA:
(Also, I’m assuming this is all outdoors)
Didn’t notice this part earlier. I would be much less worried outdoors where virus particles are more likely to disperse instead of hang around, but don’t have any quantitative answers to offer.
I suspect the inside issue is something that will eventually have to be addresses via ventilation and filtration (as in planes) and attention to just how the air flows seems important here. That probably doesn’t get us back to distances pre-COVID-19 but at least gets to some new workable normal. (Unless we’re giving up direct social interactions and go to pure virtual reality solutions).
Outside might still need some work I think. If you’re thinking not overly crowded settings not nearly as much to worry about. However, things like open air markets, rallies, large spectator sporting events outside or even tightly packed streets may still be a bit problematic. I think a lot there will depend on infection density at that point. I would expect some type of cloud to still emerge from the crowd of people that may remain localized in a lot of weather settings.
a) the sort of person who wasn’t that trustworthy in the first place and was probably going to start hanging out with friends within a few weeks even if official quarantines weren’t lifted, but who might follow basic precautions if they were spelled out clearly.
b) small high trust networks where everyone has been quarantining (and documenting their quarantine), nobody has been interacting with anyone outside the network, etc. (but, still with a margin of error added so that a single person who’s been exposed unknowingly doesn’t end up auto-infecting everyone)
From “A choir group had 60 people show up for practice. Now 45 are sick.”:
Given that they were spaced out and 1 asymptomatic person probably infected all 45 out of 60 in what must be a reasonably large room, it seems just impractical to keep sufficient distance to be safe indoors.
Talking emits droplets and aerosols just like coughing does. In fact, I’m increasingly thinking that face-to-face conversations (especially without facemasks) are a major cause of asymptomatic transmissions. According to that theory, an indoor choir practice, with everyone singing loudly for extended periods, has to be one of the worst imaginable transmission risks. If the same type of super-spreader event happened in, say, a movie theater, I would be much more confused about it.
That makes sense, and does update me against public gatherings (but, I’m thinking of things on the timescale of a months to a year. I’m guessing it’ll get increasingly hard to keep people apart. I’m also thinking less in terms of groups of 60, and more more like groups of 2-5)
I was thinking of thresholds that were more like “at least 12 feet apart, maybe 20 feet”, with nobody touching any objects. (Also, I’m assuming this is all outdoors)
My point is that since 45 out of 60 people were infected and they were spaced out, the farthest person infected in that group must have been quite far from the source of the infection, and keeping a even longer distance to be safe is probably impractical for most indoor spaces.
ETA:
Didn’t notice this part earlier. I would be much less worried outdoors where virus particles are more likely to disperse instead of hang around, but don’t have any quantitative answers to offer.
Ah, okay yes that makes sense.
I suspect the inside issue is something that will eventually have to be addresses via ventilation and filtration (as in planes) and attention to just how the air flows seems important here. That probably doesn’t get us back to distances pre-COVID-19 but at least gets to some new workable normal. (Unless we’re giving up direct social interactions and go to pure virtual reality solutions).
Outside might still need some work I think. If you’re thinking not overly crowded settings not nearly as much to worry about. However, things like open air markets, rallies, large spectator sporting events outside or even tightly packed streets may still be a bit problematic. I think a lot there will depend on infection density at that point. I would expect some type of cloud to still emerge from the crowd of people that may remain localized in a lot of weather settings.
I have roughly two use cases in mind here:
a) the sort of person who wasn’t that trustworthy in the first place and was probably going to start hanging out with friends within a few weeks even if official quarantines weren’t lifted, but who might follow basic precautions if they were spelled out clearly.
b) small high trust networks where everyone has been quarantining (and documenting their quarantine), nobody has been interacting with anyone outside the network, etc. (but, still with a margin of error added so that a single person who’s been exposed unknowingly doesn’t end up auto-infecting everyone)