It is substantially slower than the takeoff speed estimates of Eliezer, yes. I’m definitely disagreeing with Eliezer on this point. But as far as I can tell my view is closer to Eliezer’s than to Hanson’s, at least in upshot. (I’m a bit confused about this—IIRC Hanson also said somewhere that takeoff would last only a couple of years? Then why is he so confident it’ll be so broadly distributed, why does he think property rights will be respected throughout, why does he think humans will be able to retire peacefully, etc.?)
I also think it’s plausible that there will be multiple competing groups rather than one singleton AI, though not more than 80% plausible; I can easily imagine it just being one singleton.
I think that even if there are multiple competing groups, however, they are very likely to coordinate to disempower humans. From the perspective of the humans it’ll be as if they are an AI singleton, even though from the perspective of the AIs it’ll be some interesting multipolar conflict (that eventually ends with some negotiated peaceful settlement, I imagine)
After all, this is what happened historically with colonialism. Colonial powers (and individuals within conquistador expeditions) were constantly fighting each other.
It is substantially slower than the takeoff speed estimates of Eliezer, yes. I’m definitely disagreeing with Eliezer on this point. But as far as I can tell my view is closer to Eliezer’s than to Hanson’s, at least in upshot. (I’m a bit confused about this—IIRC Hanson also said somewhere that takeoff would last only a couple of years? Then why is he so confident it’ll be so broadly distributed, why does he think property rights will be respected throughout, why does he think humans will be able to retire peacefully, etc.?)
I also think it’s plausible that there will be multiple competing groups rather than one singleton AI, though not more than 80% plausible; I can easily imagine it just being one singleton.
I think that even if there are multiple competing groups, however, they are very likely to coordinate to disempower humans. From the perspective of the humans it’ll be as if they are an AI singleton, even though from the perspective of the AIs it’ll be some interesting multipolar conflict (that eventually ends with some negotiated peaceful settlement, I imagine)
After all, this is what happened historically with colonialism. Colonial powers (and individuals within conquistador expeditions) were constantly fighting each other.