I’m thinking someone with a huge active social media following, universal name recognition, attractive and charismatic, significant financial resources, history of political activism, strategic demographic appeal, progressive politics as a backlash to whatever Trump gets done over the next 8 years...
Is the probability non-negligible? More so now that Trump won, right?
(But) I’m most interested in considering the probability of people whose primary draw as a candidate is fame they gained through something like the entertainment industry, for example. Because the skill set necessary to succeed seems to have little to do with being an effective POTUS.
Trump is still a “business man”, so Lumifer is right that it’s reasonable to assume he’s at least a competent manager. The same could be said of Musk or Gates.
Ashton Kutcher might be a better possibility—investor, venture capitalist, manager of a human rights organization. Highly well known (but only because of acting), and would almost certainly be a foil to Trump in many ways.
So, lessee, a pretty face who dropped out of college, was Demi Moore’s boy-toy for a while, is rich (apparently it’s now spelled as “investor”), a student of Kabbalah, has a Russian (for certain values of “Russian”) wife. Clearly, prime presidential material.
Oh, and he is not a “manager” of a human-rights organization. He is on their board of directors which translates to “gives money to” and was a co-founder during his boy-toy phase.
I agree Ashton Kutcher doesn’t pass my initial presidential smell test. But I’m not sure Trump did either, especially as a GOP candidate...
Thrice married. Foreign born trophy wife. Only recently pro life. Just fine with gay marriage. Not terribly fiscally conservative. Prone to vulgarity. Bromantic af with Putin. Proud adulterer & pussy grabber. Orange.
Yeah, definitely the “pretty boy” thing is the biggest problem for Kutcher—even if it turns out he’s a better businessman than Trump. There’s something about that kind of personality where I think most people would have a hard time taking him seriously.
Leonardo DiCaprio, Meryl Streep, Katy Perry, Rosie O’Donnell and Beyonce are on the list and seem to fit the criteria I’m curious about.
Acting skill seems as if it would be very helpful in a political campaign. And just general confidence in a public forum.
You don’t need to actually know anything; you just need to convince people you know things.
Trump’s last speech has been mostly praised as one of his most presidential. This is, in large part, because he read what other people wrote for him in a president-sounding voice and didn’t deviate much from the script and ad lib like he normally does.
I would think Tom Hanks or Meryl Streep or DiCaprio could be pretty damned captivating from the podium or even in debates with a bit of a crash course in current affairs.
Media celebrities are used to adoration. I wonder about their resilience—how would they handle deliberate, sustained, and direct hostility in a public forum.
You don’t need to actually know anything; you just need to convince people you know things.
I suspect this is not as easy as it looks, especially when you need to remain convincing over many months in the face of opposition.
In general, there is an important requirement for presidential candidates: they must be able to survive a team of smart, persistent, and malicious lawyers digging through their past and their private life for any dirt. I suspect the process is highly unpleasant for the target and I suspect many celebrities will… have difficulties here.
I know, but he was at the time at the peak of his popularity, and I give a low-to-moderate probability that in a counterfactual world where this was not an impediment, he could have won the Presidential election.
Since he was born outside of the US he is not eligible to run for President.
Yet. Growth mindset.
Right. He should make the acausal trade with John Connor so that after a few time loop iterations he gets born (or recreated out of molten metal or something) on the good ol’ soil of the good ol’ US of A.
Could a mega celeb win the U.S. Presidency?
Say, Beyonce in 2024?
I’m thinking someone with a huge active social media following, universal name recognition, attractive and charismatic, significant financial resources, history of political activism, strategic demographic appeal, progressive politics as a backlash to whatever Trump gets done over the next 8 years...
Is the probability non-negligible? More so now that Trump won, right?
Kanye West would be MUCH more entertaining in this scenario X-D
I don’t think he has the broad popularity to win.
Maybe Ellen Degeneres?
We’re not talking about realistic scenarios.
But is your list of candidates filtered by (not white) OR (not straight)? X-)
Elon Musk? He’s definitely a celebrity in some sense, if not an entertainer, and he at least carries the full list of adjectives you laid out.
Sure. (Though he isn’t U.S. born) Or Bill Gates.
(But) I’m most interested in considering the probability of people whose primary draw as a candidate is fame they gained through something like the entertainment industry, for example. Because the skill set necessary to succeed seems to have little to do with being an effective POTUS.
Trump is still a “business man”, so Lumifer is right that it’s reasonable to assume he’s at least a competent manager. The same could be said of Musk or Gates.
Ashton Kutcher might be a better possibility—investor, venture capitalist, manager of a human rights organization. Highly well known (but only because of acting), and would almost certainly be a foil to Trump in many ways.
So, lessee, a pretty face who dropped out of college, was Demi Moore’s boy-toy for a while, is rich (apparently it’s now spelled as “investor”), a student of Kabbalah, has a Russian (for certain values of “Russian”) wife. Clearly, prime presidential material.
Oh, and he is not a “manager” of a human-rights organization. He is on their board of directors which translates to “gives money to” and was a co-founder during his boy-toy phase.
Clearly we could never have a president with even the slightest hint of Russian connections. No sir.
Well, that’s what the left-wing media keeps telling me nowadays… :-P
I agree Ashton Kutcher doesn’t pass my initial presidential smell test. But I’m not sure Trump did either, especially as a GOP candidate...
Thrice married. Foreign born trophy wife. Only recently pro life. Just fine with gay marriage. Not terribly fiscally conservative. Prone to vulgarity. Bromantic af with Putin. Proud adulterer & pussy grabber. Orange.
GOP: We’ll take it!
Actually, I think it was more like this:
No. No! No!!! Nooooooo!!!!! OK, whatever… Wait, what?
Yeah, definitely the “pretty boy” thing is the biggest problem for Kutcher—even if it turns out he’s a better businessman than Trump. There’s something about that kind of personality where I think most people would have a hard time taking him seriously.
Don’t think he was born in the US.
Neither was Obama.
As far as I can tell from the evidence gathered online, he was. Do you have access to other evidence strongly pointing to the contrary?
I was joking.
Poe’s law, dude!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2020#Speculative_candidates_2
Leonardo DiCaprio, Meryl Streep, Katy Perry, Rosie O’Donnell and Beyonce are on the list and seem to fit the criteria I’m curious about.
Acting skill seems as if it would be very helpful in a political campaign. And just general confidence in a public forum.
You don’t need to actually know anything; you just need to convince people you know things.
Trump’s last speech has been mostly praised as one of his most presidential. This is, in large part, because he read what other people wrote for him in a president-sounding voice and didn’t deviate much from the script and ad lib like he normally does.
I would think Tom Hanks or Meryl Streep or DiCaprio could be pretty damned captivating from the podium or even in debates with a bit of a crash course in current affairs.
Media celebrities are used to adoration. I wonder about their resilience—how would they handle deliberate, sustained, and direct hostility in a public forum.
I suspect this is not as easy as it looks, especially when you need to remain convincing over many months in the face of opposition.
In general, there is an important requirement for presidential candidates: they must be able to survive a team of smart, persistent, and malicious lawyers digging through their past and their private life for any dirt. I suspect the process is highly unpleasant for the target and I suspect many celebrities will… have difficulties here.
Of course. Celebrity and POTUS-y go hand in hand since the beginning of time. Reagan, Schwarzenegger, Trump...
Schwarzenegger was merely a governator. Since he was born outside of the US he is not eligible to run for President.
I know, but he was at the time at the peak of his popularity, and I give a low-to-moderate probability that in a counterfactual world where this was not an impediment, he could have won the Presidential election.
Yet. Growth mindset.
Right. He should make the acausal trade with John Connor so that after a few time loop iterations he gets born (or recreated out of molten metal or something) on the good ol’ soil of the good ol’ US of A.