Well, timeframe & circumstances are important to note here.
In, say...2012, I think a 1% probability of Donald Trump being POTUS (elect) in Nov 2016 would have seemed far too high to most.
By Nov 1 of 2016, 20% seemed more reasonable.
The probability spikes dramatically after the candidate wins their party’s nomination.
Well, timeframe & circumstances are important to note here.
In, say...2012, I think a 1% probability of Donald Trump being POTUS (elect) in Nov 2016 would have seemed far too high to most.
By Nov 1 of 2016, 20% seemed more reasonable.
The probability spikes dramatically after the candidate wins their party’s nomination.