It could also work here. But I do feel like pointing out that the bounty format has other drawbacks. Maybe it works better when you want a variety of bitesize contributions, like various different proposals? I probably wouldn’t do work like Abram proposes—quite a long and difficult project, I expect—for the chance of winning a prize, particularly if the winner(s) were decided by someone’s subjective judgement.
My intuition is that you could break this task down into smaller chunks, like applications of Infra-bayes and musings on why Infra-bayes worked better than existing tools there (or worse!), which someone could do within a couple of weeks, and award bounties for those tasks. Then offer jobs to whomever seems like they could do good distillations.
I think that for a few 100 hour tasks, you might need to offer maybe $50k-$100k dollars. That sounds crazy high? Well AI safety is talent constrained, it doesn’t look like much is being done with the money, and MIRI seems to think there’s a high discount rate (doom within a decade or two) so money should be spent now on tasks that seem important.
It could also work here. But I do feel like pointing out that the bounty format has other drawbacks. Maybe it works better when you want a variety of bitesize contributions, like various different proposals? I probably wouldn’t do work like Abram proposes—quite a long and difficult project, I expect—for the chance of winning a prize, particularly if the winner(s) were decided by someone’s subjective judgement.
My intuition is that you could break this task down into smaller chunks, like applications of Infra-bayes and musings on why Infra-bayes worked better than existing tools there (or worse!), which someone could do within a couple of weeks, and award bounties for those tasks. Then offer jobs to whomever seems like they could do good distillations.
I think that for a few 100 hour tasks, you might need to offer maybe $50k-$100k dollars. That sounds crazy high? Well AI safety is talent constrained, it doesn’t look like much is being done with the money, and MIRI seems to think there’s a high discount rate (doom within a decade or two) so money should be spent now on tasks that seem important.