When you say hardware progress, do you just mean compute getting cheaper or do you include people spending more on compute? So you are saying, you guess that if we had 10 OOMs of compute today that would have a 50% chance of leading to human-level AI without any further software progress, but realistically you expect that what’ll happen is we get +5 OOMs from increased spending and cheaper hardware, and then +5 “virtual OOMs” from better software?
When you say hardware progress, do you just mean compute getting cheaper or do you include people spending more on compute? So you are saying, you guess that if we had 10 OOMs of compute today that would have a 50% chance of leading to human-level AI without any further software progress, but realistically you expect that what’ll happen is we get +5 OOMs from increased spending and cheaper hardware, and then +5 “virtual OOMs” from better software?