Really? What probability would you assign to the possibility of each of the following?
*Some form of god exists
*That god created the entire observable universe/is giving inputs indistinguishable from an outside universe existing
*The god created this universe occurred between 1,000 and 10,000 years ago (as opposed to 5e-44 seconds ago, or 5e+17 seconds ago, or any amount of time between)
This conjunction allows for many worlds that are not even remotely similar to what most young earth creationists believe, and even so I would estimate the odds as well under 1/20000. 1/20000 says the odds of young earth creationism being true are better than being dealt 4 kings or better in five card stud, or of flipping a fair coin and getting heads 15 times in a row.
Yes, and that’s an excellent attitude to have (your knowledge of the truth is only as good as your ability to change your mind on conflicting evidence) but the chance that you will be converted to that particular thing is probably quite low. The chance of something equally implausible-sounding being true is much higher that .005%, but that’s because there are far more than 20000 things that sound equally implausible.
You’re presuming that only one proposition with .005% probability can be true. But if there are far more than 20,000 propositions that have a around a .005% chance of being true, then there are probably multiple such propositions that are true.
I’ve been converted once. There’s a reasonable chance I’ll be converted again.
The probability that one will convert to a religion or belief system is not the same as the probability one should give that the belief system is correct. Mental health problems, cognitive biases, and emotional pull are all highly relevant.
Really? What probability would you assign to the possibility of each of the following?
*Some form of god exists
*That god created the entire observable universe/is giving inputs indistinguishable from an outside universe existing
*The god created this universe occurred between 1,000 and 10,000 years ago (as opposed to 5e-44 seconds ago, or 5e+17 seconds ago, or any amount of time between)
This conjunction allows for many worlds that are not even remotely similar to what most young earth creationists believe, and even so I would estimate the odds as well under 1/20000. 1/20000 says the odds of young earth creationism being true are better than being dealt 4 kings or better in five card stud, or of flipping a fair coin and getting heads 15 times in a row.
I’ve been converted once. There’s a reasonable chance I’ll be converted again.
Yes, and that’s an excellent attitude to have (your knowledge of the truth is only as good as your ability to change your mind on conflicting evidence) but the chance that you will be converted to that particular thing is probably quite low. The chance of something equally implausible-sounding being true is much higher that .005%, but that’s because there are far more than 20000 things that sound equally implausible.
You’re presuming that only one proposition with .005% probability can be true. But if there are far more than 20,000 propositions that have a around a .005% chance of being true, then there are probably multiple such propositions that are true.
The probability that one will convert to a religion or belief system is not the same as the probability one should give that the belief system is correct. Mental health problems, cognitive biases, and emotional pull are all highly relevant.