Yes, and that’s an excellent attitude to have (your knowledge of the truth is only as good as your ability to change your mind on conflicting evidence) but the chance that you will be converted to that particular thing is probably quite low. The chance of something equally implausible-sounding being true is much higher that .005%, but that’s because there are far more than 20000 things that sound equally implausible.
You’re presuming that only one proposition with .005% probability can be true. But if there are far more than 20,000 propositions that have a around a .005% chance of being true, then there are probably multiple such propositions that are true.
I’ve been converted once. There’s a reasonable chance I’ll be converted again.
The probability that one will convert to a religion or belief system is not the same as the probability one should give that the belief system is correct. Mental health problems, cognitive biases, and emotional pull are all highly relevant.
I’ve been converted once. There’s a reasonable chance I’ll be converted again.
Yes, and that’s an excellent attitude to have (your knowledge of the truth is only as good as your ability to change your mind on conflicting evidence) but the chance that you will be converted to that particular thing is probably quite low. The chance of something equally implausible-sounding being true is much higher that .005%, but that’s because there are far more than 20000 things that sound equally implausible.
You’re presuming that only one proposition with .005% probability can be true. But if there are far more than 20,000 propositions that have a around a .005% chance of being true, then there are probably multiple such propositions that are true.
The probability that one will convert to a religion or belief system is not the same as the probability one should give that the belief system is correct. Mental health problems, cognitive biases, and emotional pull are all highly relevant.