I’m updating fairly hard on the four radvac team members who found antibodies using custom-built ELISA assays (rather than commercial tests). I wasn’t super compelled by arguments that those might be false positives, but I do find it important that we don’t know the denominator off how many of them took that test.
It maybe moved my probability from 17% to 45% that it would work for me (so still less optimistic than Wentworth!)
Though I think even a 5% chance of it working would make the original question worth asking. As they say: huge if true :)
(Also, the more competent version of me who solved it in a month would need to be competent on many other dimensions as well, not just knowing about peptide vaccines. Thinking about it, just the peptide delivery time could be longer than a month, as could the vaccine booster schedule. I do think there are worlds where it’s actually a month, but I’ll update the question to say “a few”)
I’m updating fairly hard on the four radvac team members who found antibodies using custom-built ELISA assays (rather than commercial tests). I wasn’t super compelled by arguments that those might be false positives, but I do find it important that we don’t know the denominator off how many of them took that test.
It maybe moved my probability from 17% to 45% that it would work for me (so still less optimistic than Wentworth!)
Though I think even a 5% chance of it working would make the original question worth asking. As they say: huge if true :)
(Also, the more competent version of me who solved it in a month would need to be competent on many other dimensions as well, not just knowing about peptide vaccines. Thinking about it, just the peptide delivery time could be longer than a month, as could the vaccine booster schedule. I do think there are worlds where it’s actually a month, but I’ll update the question to say “a few”)