However, I later wrote a post engaging with cruxes that I think are important, and in particular, what I think would need to be false for the (alternative) palatability theory of obesity to be falsified.
That does address the epistemic issue in the present moment. I hadn’t seen it. I will note that in my original comment.
Socially, I think it would have been preferable to first write your crux post, and then to approach them on Twitter. It doesn’t take persistent “harassment” (I didn’t see your post as harassment, and this seems like playful hyperbole to me) to create persistent social tension. A strident Twitter challenge to make a fairly large bet will do that all by itself. I have no idea whether the author(s?) at SMTM actually feel tense. It’s just how it resonated with me, on an emotional level.
I also agree that their failure to bet you is not relevant to most people’s credences for the lithium hypothesis, but their general approach to epistemics was a persistent theme in Natalia’s post, and this was the part that bugged me.
I doubt even SMTM thinks lithium explains literally 100% of the obesity epidemic.
Maybe not, but SMTM did literally summarize their theory as, “These contaminants are the only cause of the obesity epidemic, and the worldwide increase in obesity rates since 1980 is entirely attributable to their effects.” (Note that my bet was not about Lithium but was instead about their general theory, which just proposes some small set of contaminants).
Good catch, I wasn’t precise enough with my language. What I meant was, “I doubt even SMTM thinks lithium explains literally 100% of the prevalence of obesity,” and of course we should replace “lithium” with “environmental contaminants.”
I read them as giving the strongest possible version of their hypothesis. It would also be possible to give their statement about what they view as the most likely version of their hypothesis, in which environmental contaminants explain some range of percentages of the worldwide increase in obesity rates since 1980. These are two distinct and useful statements to make, but the strong statement is easier to make than the credence-based statement, and makes it easier for a new reader to integrate the subsequent argument.
That does address the epistemic issue in the present moment. I hadn’t seen it. I will note that in my original comment.
Socially, I think it would have been preferable to first write your crux post, and then to approach them on Twitter. It doesn’t take persistent “harassment” (I didn’t see your post as harassment, and this seems like playful hyperbole to me) to create persistent social tension. A strident Twitter challenge to make a fairly large bet will do that all by itself. I have no idea whether the author(s?) at SMTM actually feel tense. It’s just how it resonated with me, on an emotional level.
I also agree that their failure to bet you is not relevant to most people’s credences for the lithium hypothesis, but their general approach to epistemics was a persistent theme in Natalia’s post, and this was the part that bugged me.
Good catch, I wasn’t precise enough with my language. What I meant was, “I doubt even SMTM thinks lithium explains literally 100% of the prevalence of obesity,” and of course we should replace “lithium” with “environmental contaminants.”
I read them as giving the strongest possible version of their hypothesis. It would also be possible to give their statement about what they view as the most likely version of their hypothesis, in which environmental contaminants explain some range of percentages of the worldwide increase in obesity rates since 1980. These are two distinct and useful statements to make, but the strong statement is easier to make than the credence-based statement, and makes it easier for a new reader to integrate the subsequent argument.