You make some interesting points, but completely fumble on your conclusion about AI FOOM. Please read the sequences. They are interesting and they will make you rethink your position.
In general, telling people to “read the sequences” is moderately offensive, and should either be avoided or prefaced with both a surety that the intended audience has not in fact read the sequence and care to explain what parts of the sequences might help and why.
(Although sometimes people can get away with the offense in the exhortation the the subject has sacrificed credibility in the immediate context beyond the audience’s threshold for wanting to protect that person’s dignity. Or if you have a lot of status yourself, but that tends to only drag you up to ‘neutral’ reception.)
Not only have I read the sequences, I was a Singularitarian as well as AGI researcher long before they were written. If you have any new arguments against my conclusion, I would be interested in hearing them.
They are interesting and they will make you rethink your position.
Even the sequences only lead the horse to water. ;)
Also note that the sequences are (thankfully) for most part about thinking in general not FAI and fooming specifically. Even if Eliezer intends them to improve thinking in that area.
That said, there are one or two posts by Eliezer (and probably by others) that are more than sufficient to dissuade one of the notions in this post. Although I must admit that I think this post is one of them.
You make some interesting points, but completely fumble on your conclusion about AI FOOM. Please read the sequences. They are interesting and they will make you rethink your position.
In general, telling people to “read the sequences” is moderately offensive, and should either be avoided or prefaced with both a surety that the intended audience has not in fact read the sequence and care to explain what parts of the sequences might help and why.
(Although sometimes people can get away with the offense in the exhortation the the subject has sacrificed credibility in the immediate context beyond the audience’s threshold for wanting to protect that person’s dignity. Or if you have a lot of status yourself, but that tends to only drag you up to ‘neutral’ reception.)
Not only have I read the sequences, I was a Singularitarian as well as AGI researcher long before they were written. If you have any new arguments against my conclusion, I would be interested in hearing them.
Even the sequences only lead the horse to water. ;)
Also note that the sequences are (thankfully) for most part about thinking in general not FAI and fooming specifically. Even if Eliezer intends them to improve thinking in that area.
That said, there are one or two posts by Eliezer (and probably by others) that are more than sufficient to dissuade one of the notions in this post. Although I must admit that I think this post is one of them.