I happen to believe that there is a reason why my argument does not have the uncomfortable implications you’re sketching out here. But before I present it, I want to point out that this has no bearing on whether the argument is true or false. If it had as an implication that we have a 30% chance of going extinct on any given day, that wouldn’t make it any less plausible.
Do you think that the fact that this hasn’t happened for a few billion years is NO EVIDENCE AT ALL that the probability of it happening in any given year is low?
Well, it is some evidence because the quantum assumptions may not hold.
But if we assume the necessary things then yes; I think the fact that we haven’t been killed by an asteroid in a few billion years is no evidence at all that the probability of it happening is low. However! The fact that we also had very few large but non-fatal asteroids across a few billion years is very strong evidence that it is unlikely. And the same argument works for most stuff.
We only have to worry about the things for which we have a special reason to believe that they won’t come in less-than-lethal forms. Three candidates for such things are, I think, nuclear weapons, aliens, and superintelligence. And I am indeed totally biting the bullet on the implications there. I made a post about the first two here. And as for superintelligence, I think there will be some versions of us still around after a singularity, and it will indeed be incorrect for our future selves to conclude that, since we survived it, it wasn’t that dangerous after all.
I agree that the possibility of serious but less than catastrophic effects renders the issue here moot for many problems (which I think includes nuclear war.) I tried to make the interstellar planet example one where the issue is real—the number of such planets seems to me to be unrelated to how many asteroids are in the solar system, and might collide with less-catastrophic effects (or at least we could suppose so), whereas even a glancing collision with a planet-sized object would wipe out humanity. However, I may have failed with the mutated insect example, since one can easily imagine less catastrophic mutations.
I’m unclear on what your position is regarding such catastrophes, though. Something that quickly kills me seems like the most plausible situation where an argument regarding selection effects might be valid. But you seem to have in mind things that kill me more slowly as well, taking long enough for me to have lots of thoughts after realizing that I’m doomed. And you also seem to have in mind things that would have wiped out humanity before I was born, which seems like a different sort of thing altogether to me.
I tried to make the interstellar planet example one where the issue is real—the number of such planets seems to me to be unrelated to how many asteroids are in the solar system
Mh. I see. Well, my position on that isn’t complicated, it’s whatever the argument implies. If it is indeed true that we have no evidence on the probability of this even now, then I think it is possible that it happens quite frequently. (I’m ignorant on this, so I just have to take your word.) In regard to things that kill you “slowly,” I think time just matters proportionately. If an event sets your expected lifespan to one year. then it would have to happen with the frequency of once per year for you to have even odds of finding yourself in that world, which would then be moderate evidence. (I might have made a mistake there, but it seems to me like that’s how it works.) I think we can conclude that nukes probably don’t go off once per month, but not that they go off less than once per lifetime.
I happen to believe that there is a reason why my argument does not have the uncomfortable implications you’re sketching out here. But before I present it, I want to point out that this has no bearing on whether the argument is true or false. If it had as an implication that we have a 30% chance of going extinct on any given day, that wouldn’t make it any less plausible.
Well, it is some evidence because the quantum assumptions may not hold.
But if we assume the necessary things then yes; I think the fact that we haven’t been killed by an asteroid in a few billion years is no evidence at all that the probability of it happening is low. However! The fact that we also had very few large but non-fatal asteroids across a few billion years is very strong evidence that it is unlikely. And the same argument works for most stuff.
We only have to worry about the things for which we have a special reason to believe that they won’t come in less-than-lethal forms. Three candidates for such things are, I think, nuclear weapons, aliens, and superintelligence. And I am indeed totally biting the bullet on the implications there. I made a post about the first two here. And as for superintelligence, I think there will be some versions of us still around after a singularity, and it will indeed be incorrect for our future selves to conclude that, since we survived it, it wasn’t that dangerous after all.
I agree that the possibility of serious but less than catastrophic effects renders the issue here moot for many problems (which I think includes nuclear war.) I tried to make the interstellar planet example one where the issue is real—the number of such planets seems to me to be unrelated to how many asteroids are in the solar system, and might collide with less-catastrophic effects (or at least we could suppose so), whereas even a glancing collision with a planet-sized object would wipe out humanity. However, I may have failed with the mutated insect example, since one can easily imagine less catastrophic mutations.
I’m unclear on what your position is regarding such catastrophes, though. Something that quickly kills me seems like the most plausible situation where an argument regarding selection effects might be valid. But you seem to have in mind things that kill me more slowly as well, taking long enough for me to have lots of thoughts after realizing that I’m doomed. And you also seem to have in mind things that would have wiped out humanity before I was born, which seems like a different sort of thing altogether to me.
Mh. I see. Well, my position on that isn’t complicated, it’s whatever the argument implies. If it is indeed true that we have no evidence on the probability of this even now, then I think it is possible that it happens quite frequently. (I’m ignorant on this, so I just have to take your word.) In regard to things that kill you “slowly,” I think time just matters proportionately. If an event sets your expected lifespan to one year. then it would have to happen with the frequency of once per year for you to have even odds of finding yourself in that world, which would then be moderate evidence. (I might have made a mistake there, but it seems to me like that’s how it works.) I think we can conclude that nukes probably don’t go off once per month, but not that they go off less than once per lifetime.