I tried to make the interstellar planet example one where the issue is real—the number of such planets seems to me to be unrelated to how many asteroids are in the solar system
Mh. I see. Well, my position on that isn’t complicated, it’s whatever the argument implies. If it is indeed true that we have no evidence on the probability of this even now, then I think it is possible that it happens quite frequently. (I’m ignorant on this, so I just have to take your word.) In regard to things that kill you “slowly,” I think time just matters proportionately. If an event sets your expected lifespan to one year. then it would have to happen with the frequency of once per year for you to have even odds of finding yourself in that world, which would then be moderate evidence. (I might have made a mistake there, but it seems to me like that’s how it works.) I think we can conclude that nukes probably don’t go off once per month, but not that they go off less than once per lifetime.
Mh. I see. Well, my position on that isn’t complicated, it’s whatever the argument implies. If it is indeed true that we have no evidence on the probability of this even now, then I think it is possible that it happens quite frequently. (I’m ignorant on this, so I just have to take your word.) In regard to things that kill you “slowly,” I think time just matters proportionately. If an event sets your expected lifespan to one year. then it would have to happen with the frequency of once per year for you to have even odds of finding yourself in that world, which would then be moderate evidence. (I might have made a mistake there, but it seems to me like that’s how it works.) I think we can conclude that nukes probably don’t go off once per month, but not that they go off less than once per lifetime.